It does not appear to be a good time to be a leader in Latin America or, for that matter, the Caribbean.
After more than a decade of sustained economic growth, averaging more than 4 percent annually, driving significant social progress, the lifting of tens of millions out of extreme poverty and the growth of the middle class in Latin America, the region –not excluding the Caribbean Community – has hit choppy waters, as economic stagnation and social tensions are becoming the norm.
With the economic slowdown in China and the weakening of demand for raw materials, commodity exporters have been particularly affected. To make matters worse, trans-national organized crime and associated corruption, stemming mainly from the narcotics trade, trafficking in people and arms, and money laundering – the latter brought into prominence by the Panama Papers – as well as domestic criminality are causing already fragile democracies, with weak institutions, to look increasingly vulnerable as the rule of law and good governance are compromised and threatened.
Taken with the fact that almost all the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean have to contend with long-standing problems of political patronage and endemic corruption, it is hardly surprising that a better-informed and inter-connected citizenry are becoming more demanding of transparency, accountability, probity and efficiency in government and are, at the same time, becoming more aware of their capacity to force change by bringing pressure to bear on their elected representatives.
Nowhere is this more evident than in Brazil, where President Dilma Rousseff, her popularity, never overwhelming and now at an all-time low, is facing impeachment, even as the country reels from recession and huge corruption scandals. Not even the promise of the Olympic Games in August can assuage the feelings of gloom and doom. Indeed, many Brazilians fear being embarrassed on a global scale. But the country’s governance crisis cannot be put on hold, not even for the Olympics. And popular discontent is making itself increasingly felt.
In Mexico, Brazil’s traditional rival for hegemony in Latin America, the situation is only slightly less bad. President Enrique Peña Nieto has a disapproval rating of 66 percent, the lowest since he assumed office in December 2012 when he enjoyed 61 percent approval, and the worst mark registered by any Mexican leader since 1995. Mr Peña Nieto’s problem is the popular backlash against his government’s ineffective management of the economy and the fight against poverty, their inability to deal with Mexico’s security crisis, and the complete lack of confidence in his ability to implement anti-corruption policies.
As for Venezuela, the other aspirant to regional leadership when it was awash with petrodollars to fuel its Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA), the political and economic devastation being wrought there is already well documented. Most recently, the economic crisis has been exacerbated by a drought that has caused a dramatic drop in the country’s hydropower generation, so much so that President Nicolás Maduro’s government has instituted a four-day work week for public servants and has also, almost laughably, appealed to women not to use hairdryers.
In the meantime, the political crisis worsens, with the government using all the institutional means at its disposal to thwart the opposition-controlled National Assembly. The fear now is that radical opposition factions may feel that they have no alternative but to take to the streets, which moderate members believe would be playing into Mr Maduro’s hands, by giving him an excuse to take whatever executive measures he considers necessary in the interest of ‘public order’.
Even in nearby Trinidad and Tobago, where the recession, declining revenues from the energy sector, currency depreciation and rising inflation have prompted the government to undertake a midterm review of its 2015/16 budget, more of the same, along with increased taxation and the phasing out of the fuel subsidy, only promises more pain for a population already under stress. And with the country also registering a 26 percent increase in the murder rate over the past year and the highest count to date in the past five years, the picture emerging is of a nation under siege.
The region’s problems are not limited to these countries. Crises of governance, economic stewardship and security are taking their toll on leaders and citizens alike. Latin American leaders are coming under increasing pressure to deliver on campaign promises. When their performance in office pales in comparison, not just the political opposition but also the people get restless. Caribbean leaders would do well to take note.