With the end of the country’s five-year parliamentary term formally due towards the end of November 2016, St Lucia’s Prime Minister Kenny Anthony took the occasion of a recent Budget address and debate, still to be concluded, to announce the dissolution of the country’s Parliament and the holding of general elections on June 6, thus leaving the conclusion of Budget proceedings to be undertaken either by his St Lucia Labour Party (SLP) or the current Opposition United Workers Party (UWP).
The election announcement seems to have followed a period of continuing provocation by the UWP following the relatively recent assumption of the leadership of that party, the creation of the late Sir John Compton, by Mr Allan Chastanet, who has not yet been a member of the National Assembly, and has not therefore been able to undertake the function of Leader of the Opposition in the Parliament.
On the other hand, Dr Anthony appears to have wanted to take advantage of the apparent fact that Mr Chastanet, the scion of one of St Lucia’s wealthy families, has not yet completely consolidated his hold over the UWP, following the dislodging of former Prime Minister Stephen King from the leadership after the general elections of 2011, and his replacement by a separate Leader of the Opposition in the House of Assembly, former University of the West Indies Lecturer, Dr Gale Rigobert.
So the choice of what is considered an early election date would seem to have been predicated on an assumption by Prime Minister Anthony that advantage can be taken of a certain situation of instability in the ranks of the opposition, in a period in which there are signs of the beginning of a return to economic growth, following the global economic crisis after 2007-08 which has resulted in the global economic situation being characterized as the worst since the depression of the 1930s.
Dr Anthony’s 2001-16 term of office has seemed, not unlike that in other states in the Region, to have been one of struggling to emerge from the crisis, in a period in which the country’s economy has simultaneously been feeling the consequences of the decline of the exports of the country’s major agricultural export, bananas, following the loss of protection in the British market. And from that perspective, a striking indication of the difficulty being faced by the government has been a rise in the unemployment rate of persons between 15 and 24 of 8%, St Lucia now experiencing the second highest general unemployment rate in the Region of nearly 25%.
The government goes into the election campaign taking the position that in spite of a somewhat negative international economic situation, a decisive effort has been made to further advance the growth of the tourism industry. And in a matter that can be said to be related to that industry, the opposition has insisted that it does not accept the legitimacy of another economic initiative of the government, this being the creation of what is referred to as a Citizenship by Investment Programme, designed to encourage a new medium for investment, particularly, but not exclusively, related to the tourism industry.
The decision on an election at this time seems, therefore, to be an effort on the part of government to seek a new round of legitimacy for the elaboration of development programmes which it believes to be innovative and legitimate, but which the opposition has been insisting are not. And in this connection, it would appear that Dr Anthony seeks to take the opportunity to persuade the electorate to his view by challenging a Leader of the opposing party at a time when he appears not to have fully consolidated his legitimacy to hold the post.
It does appear to be the case, however, that the calling of the election has had somewhat of a catalytic effect on the opposing personalities on the opposition side, most prominent being former Prime Minister Stephenson King who has returned to full participation in the current opposition campaign. But the apparent picture of unity will only be consolidated if Chastanet, now seeking a seat in the Parliament in a constituency different from that which he contested in the last election, is able to get elected, the constituency being that which supported Sir John Compton during his political career, and which is also being contested by the former Prime Minister’s daughter.
So the current campaign now seems to portray a picture of uncertainty about the coherence of the ranks of the opposition which, on the other hand, however, is seeking to present a story of a St Lucia in continued economic stagnation, and to portray Dr Anthony and his St Lucia Labour Party as having defaulted on an opportunity to change the economic direction of the country.
From the government’s perspective, and in the absence of published opinion polls, its campaign has laid stress on the fact that, in addition to seeking to stabilize the economy in a period of global economic stasis, it has sought to adjust it towards new economic strategies. But even as some progress appears to have been made towards movement in the direction of more extensive investment in tourism, the government would seem to be aware that the decline of the banana industry has yet to be come to terms with, and that it has been engaged in a race against time.
The current efforts to pursue further investments in tourism and in related services industries seem, however, not to have yet persuaded the citizenry that the pace of pursuit of new developments is sufficiently aggressive. So speculation focuses on the extent of the turnout of the voters.
