Dear Editor,
The Brexit result was close enough to indicate that there are still a huge number of voters who perceive the advantages of union and globalization. Yet, the verdict should not be the stunner that it has turned into; a mild surprise, yes, but a stunner, no.
I see migration as the major contributory factor, among a few significant other ones. Wherever located, consumers and voters like the free movement of goods, capital, and technology. They are not so enamoured of the uninhibited influx made possible by borderless borders. People are the problem. This foments nativists’ resentments, anger, and tensions. Fears grow. And every terrorist act ‒ delivered or discovered or derailed ‒ only further stokes the deep-seated hostility.
Observers should be quick to detect that it is the same kind of disenchantment and rage that has propelled Mr Trump to where he stands rather securely presently, and from where he stands poised to go all the way. Call it the revolt of the great unwashed, unlettered, unheeded masses. Except that it is not so unwashed and unlettered.
In all of this, there are sinews of a nascent nationalism, growing intent on protectionism, and sharp disgruntlement over terrorism. The latter could be foreign, or through the homegrown via stealth radicalization of neighbours and the psychological carnage inflicted. Traumatized people lash out, and sometimes blindly. Brexit is the first punch to land flush.
Also, the not so unlettered are keen to dilute severely the hegemonic role of central banks and the vast power and influence wielded, where citizens are reduced to powerless spectators in the financial triathlon games played, and which seem scarcely interested in the welfare of the common man.
Thus, the Brexit development can be concrete evidence of a burgeoning drive to take back country, and to control more satisfactorily local destiny. Taking back neighbourhood might be a stretch and temporarily out of reach. But I believe Brexit to be an offshoot, a follow-through, and spiritual brethren to all those rightwing (so-called extremist) parties that find growing favour in many societies, including some staid and progressive ones.
It is a combination of open blue collar animus, and somewhat closeted white collar disillusion. The result is this ring-fencing of the mind, limiting it to the narrow and the negatives that continue to unsettle. It is rich territory where the minuses obscure and overwhelm the pluses. Hence, there is Brexit; hence, there could be Donald Trump. He would have to deliver.
While I cannot envisage the logistics of deporting millions, or the effectiveness of barriers (whether trade or physical or electronic), I do think that there could be more meaningful developments in immigration policies everywhere; more concretely aggressive foreign policy practices; more unrestrained unilateralism; and more creeping protectionism. And undoubtedly, there could be the rise of more successful pro-soil (anti-outsider) forces. In other words, and as is embodied by the Republican frontrunner, the once remote, eccentric, dismissed militia can become mainstream.
When a close hard look is taken at Mr Trump, there is the splitting image of that old British firebrand hardliner, Enoch Powell (remember him?). Brexit is Mr Powell’s reincarnation and his revenge.
As an aside, I must part company with the local and regional figures who do not foresee any significant impact or consequence. If the results of this British referendum now shaking the world take root in other places, then the hopes, energies (and remittances) of local people could be drastically curtailed. Here is a tantalizing thought: what if America changes the emphasis and priority currently placed on family unity? Here is another one: when domestic pressures build, Foreign Direct Investment becomes cheaper for those doing the investing. There is a discount for uncertainty and risk. This could be down the road, and not to be dismissed.
All things considered, Brexit could be the start that culminates with more of its kind, and emboldening those other societies straining at the leash for change, for reversal. Whatever the underlying factors, here is the red line: Is Brexit the beginning of a wave? Or is it an isolated ripple sure to fade and die ignominiously for lack of global oxygen?
Yours faithfully,
GHK Lall
