2016 Facts
- Growth in Real GDP of 2.6% compared with initial and revised targets of 4.4% and 4% respectively. Growth was 3.0% in 2015.
- Inflation is projected at a rate of 1.3% compared with an initial target of 2.0%. Negative inflation of 1.8% was recorded in 2015.
- Overall balance of payments deficit of US$29.2 million compared with US$107.7 million in 2015, improving by 72.9%.
The 91-day Treasury bill rate decreased marginally from 1.92% in 2015 to 1.89%.
- The Central Bank rate of the Guyana dollar to the US dollar remained stable at $206.5 while the average market commercial bank mid-rates for the US dollar and the Euro depreciated by 0.2% to $208.21 and 2.0% to $226.17 respectively. The market mid-rates for the Pound Sterling and Canadian Dollar appreciated by 12.3% to $273.93 and 0.3% to $158.82 respectively to September 2016.
- Current Revenue of $174.8 billion compared with $161.7 billion in 2015, an increase of 8.1% and a shortfall of $1.5 billion or 0.9% from that budgeted. Current Expenditure of $179.0 billion, an increase of 10.9%.
- Merchandise exports and imports are projected to increase by 19% to US$1.4 billion and by 4.4% to US$1.6 billion respectively.
- Current account deficit of US$100.8 million (2015: US$181.5 million); and net inflows on the capital account of US$71.6 million (2015: US$71.4 million).
- Overall fiscal deficit of $38.4 billion compared with $9.3 billion in 2015 and budgeted amount of $33.2 billion.
- `Gross external reserves at September 30, 2016 for Bank of Guyana of US$610.4 million, an increase from US$598.5 million in 2015, or 2.0%.
Size of the Budget: $250Bn, 8.7% increase
2017 Targets
- Growth in Real GDP of 3.8%.
- The inflation rate projected is 2.5%.
- Balance of payments is expected to reverse from an overall deficit of US$29.2 million to an overall surplus of US$20.0 million.
- Current revenue of $186.02 billion, an increase of 6.4%. Current expenditure of $193.36 million, an increase of 8.0%.
- Current account to register a deficit of US$45.3 million. Capital account to register a surplus of US$65.2 million compared with the revised and budgeted 2016 of US$71.6 million and US$163.1 million respectively.
- Overall fiscal deficit of $42.4 billion, an increase of 10%.
Ram & McRae’s Comments
- 2016 showed the second lowest growth rate in the last decade, with a 2.3% in 2009. Average over the last five years of 3.92% down from a high of 5.2% in 2013.
- Despite the low growth rate, current revenues increased by 8.1%, which will partly be on account of Government agencies now being required to pay VAT on several inputs.
- New Consumer Price Index targeted for the end of 2017
- In health care, extremely troubling declines in the socio-economic indicators
The crime numbers may be correct however, the perception is of a different reality with a spike in robberies, some of which may not be included in the serious crimes statistics.