Right after expressions of concern, reflected in one of our editorials last week, about the stances that president-elect Donald Trump will take vis-à-vis the two great non-Western powers, Russia and China, an incident in the South China Sea has pointed further directions in which relations between the US and those powers might well evolve. And they have also indicated that incoming president Donald Trump may well have preconceived notions about how relations between the major global powers outside the North Atlantic might evolve.
On the face of it, Mr Trump’s choice of a secretary of state who has had extensive relations with Russia, seems to suggest that the new president’s attitude towards that country may not necessarily reflect the traditional American-Russia stance of persistent mutual suspicion. Rather, his orientation might reflect an awareness in the post-Cold War period of the necessity to manage relations between two countries that are no long determined by differing ideological conceptions, by the traditional big power pursuit of influence.
Further, Mr Trump may now well be influenced by a view that Russian President Putin, as far as the North Atlantic countries are concerned and in spite of the problems relating to Ukraine, is now more concerned with a normalization of Russia-North Atlantic relations, with a view to consolidating his country’ economic situation, and in particular, a settlement of relations between itself and its former Eastern European associates, now largely under the influence of the European Union.
On the other hand, while for over two decades, China has been recognised in the Western world as something of an exemplar of a determined conversion to the system of capitalism, even though within the framework of a one party system, it will have by now become clear to the Western powers that the Chinese leadership is still concerned about consolidating its geopolitical status influence in its own arena of the Far East. This includes the consolidation of its own boundaries, and acceptance on the part of neighbouring states of the significance of its geopolitical standing in that area.
In that connection, the seizure by the Chinese of a US submersible research drone, reflect the intentions of the Chinese leadership in relation to that country’s claims in the South China Sea and constitute a warning to the United States. The situation will have been exacerbated by the incoming president’s observation that while he fully understands the ‘one-China policy, he doesn’t accept that the US should be “bound by a one-China policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things including trade”.
Clearly, Chinese concerns with Trump’s statement will also have been influenced by what they will have considered a bad start to relations between the new administration and itself, this being the now infamous congratulatory telephone conversation between the president-elect and the President of Taiwan, which China does not recognize as a sovereign state.
Most of the major countries will by now have got accustomed to an inclination, even before Trump has assumed the presidency, of a tendency to make gratuitously provocative statements vis-à-vis other countries, and individuals from those countries.
Senator John McCain, in a statement critical of the Obama administration, was reported as saying that the United States was not projecting enough strength in the world. This sentiment, of course, reflects the basis of Trump’s critique of the Obama administration, to the effect that the President has not maintained the global prestige of the country. In respect of Russia, Trump undoubtedly believes that his administration can ensure a balanced relationship between Russia, in particular, and the United States, given his choice of a Secretary of State who has had extensive relations with that country on behalf of what is probably one of, if not the most, prestigious business enterprise in the US.
A certain observation of Trump’s functioning so far, suggests a degree of pragmatism in his policies. He will undoubtedly be aware that whatever observations that he has made in respect of Mexico, particularly vis-à-vis the large number of Mexican migrants to the United States, can hardly suggest a decisive closure of the border between the two countries. And in addition, leaders of countries like Mexico and other large Latin American states, cognizant of the extent of the status, as an individual largely concerned with large-scale private business, of the newly appointed Secretary of State, will certainly want to familiarize themselves with, and seek to influence him.
We can assume that Caricom diplomats in Washington will be able, at the next major meetings of Caricom foreign affairs ministers, and then heads of governments and states, to give an assessment of the new regime. For, over the next, perhaps ten years, we will have to get accustomed to the style of leadership and conduct of affairs of a president and a secretary of state traditionally concerned with business. And in that regard, we cannot assume business or social empathies from an American president characterized by those of the outgoing president.
