Earlier this year, the Commonwealth Marine Economies Programme published a report on the impact of climate change on Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS). In part, it observed that while the overall frequency of the Atlantic storms the Caribbean experiences may decrease in the future, there is an 80 per cent chance that as the century proceeds the number of devastating category four and five storms will increase.
It warned that although globally, sea levels are forecast to rise on average by 26-82 cm (10-32 inches), this figure could be higher in the northern Caribbean by 25 per cent over the same period posing a significant risk of damage by storm surges to settlements, infrastructure and biodiversity.
Moreover, the study’s authors noted, Caribbean sea-surface temperatures will likely be uniform across all seasons, warming to more than 28 ºC with negative year-round implications for hurricane intensity and early season rainfall. There will also be a tendency towards more dry spells, increasing risks from drought, and extreme rainfall events.