In this section, we set out, without analysis or comments, the key takeaways from the Minister’s review of 2018 and his projections for 2019.
2018
■ Growth in Real GDP of 3.4% compared with an initial target
of 3.8%.
■ Inflation at a rate of 2.0% compared with an initial target of 2.4%.
■ The Central Bank rate of the Guyana Dollar to the US Dollar at
October 2018 was $208.5 compared with $206.5 in 2017, a
change of $2 or 1%.
■ Average market commercial bank mid-rates for the US Dollar
depreciated by 0.02% to $212.61 at September 2018.
■ Overall balance of payments deficit of US$180.7 million com
pared with US$69.5 million deficit in 2017, worsening by 160%.
■ Decrease in merchandise exports of US$45.2 million or 3.1%
during 2018, to US$1.39 billion. Merchandise imports are
expected to increase by US$47.8 million or 2.9% during 2018, to
US$1.69 billion.
■ Current account deficit of US$463.8 million, compared to a deficit
of US$297.3 million in 2017; and a surplus of US$283.0 million
in the capital account, compared to a surplus of US$228.0 million
in 2017.
■ Current revenue of $216.9 billion compared with $195.1 billion in
2017, an increase of 11.2% and an increase of $15 billion or 7.4%
from budget of $201.9 billion. Current expenditure of $213.1
billion, an increase of 22.9% over 2017.
■ Capital expenditure of $59 billion compared with budget of $58.6
billion.
■ Overall fiscal deficit of $52.16 billion compared with budgeted
amount of $54.52 billion and $40.52 billion in 2017.
■ Gross external reserves of Bank of Guyana at the end of 2018
projected at US$477 million, a decrease from US$581.0 million in
2017, or 17.9%. This represents 2.5 months of import cover.
2019 Targets
■ Growth in Real GDP of 4.6%.
■ Inflation of 2.5%.
■ A surplus of US$15.0 million on the Balance of Payments, a
reversal from a deficit of US$180.7 million in 2018, a turnaround
of 108.3%.
■ Merchandise exports to increase by 4.12% or US$57.4 million to
US$1.45 billion and imports to increase by 0.83% or US$14.1
million to US$1.71 billion.
■ Current account to register a contraction of the deficit of
US$102.6 million to US$361.2 million. Capital account surplus of
US$376.2 million compared with US$283.0 million for 2018.
■ Current revenue of $238.3 billion, an increase of 9.9%. Current
expenditure of $291.0 billion, an increase of 11.5%.
■ Capital expenditure of $69.3 billion.
■ Overall fiscal deficit of $52.2 billion to be financed by domestic
borrowings (60%) and external borrowings (40%).