It was reported by Reuters on Tuesday that two Russian TU-160 supersonic bombers, also known as ‘White Swans’, had landed in Venezuela the day before. The news agency described them as being capable of carrying short-range nuclear missiles, and flying for over 12,000km without the need for refuelling. This followed a recent visit to the Kremlin by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who was seeking assistance in relation to his disintegrating economy. Russia is perhaps the last country where Mr Maduro can seek concessions on debt or petition for further loans, and Moscow has been granting compromises in this regard in exchange for equity in various Venezuelan oil fields.
Reuters went on to say that Russia’s Defence Ministry had not indicated whether the bombers, which were said to have been accompanied by two other Russian military planes, were carrying missiles, or what they were intended for.
Supersonic bombers next door to us would theoretically, at least, give pause for thought on account of the sensitivity of our relations with our western neighbour and the current situation with regard to the border controversy, but Foreign Minister Carl Greenidge seemed none too perturbed last week. A statement released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that “…military exercises are a regular feature of state relations and do not in themselves constitute a threat.”
The release went on to make direct reference to the controversy over the boundary, reiterating that Guyana is fully committed to adhering to the international rule of law which encompasses as well, the peaceful resolution of disputes. In addition, we quoted the statement as asserting, “Guyana remains open to pursuing meaningful functional cooperation with Venezuela whenever that opportunity arises.”
The government, Minister Greenidge assured the nation, was monitoring ongoing developments.
President Donald Trump’s earlier cordial treatment of President Vladimir Putin notwithstanding, there are considerable tensions between Washington and Moscow, with friction over Ukraine in particular, not diminishing. The landing of the supersonic aircraft is simply a way of challenging the US in its own backyard, so to speak.
Reuters cited a post from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Twitter, where he said, “The Russian and Venezuelan people should see this for what it is: two corrupt governments squandering public funds, and squelching liberty and freedom while their people suffer.”
“It’s strange,” the news agency quoted Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza as tweeting in response, “the U.S. government questions our right to cooperate on defence and security with other countries, when @realDonaldTrump publicly threatens us with a military invasion.” Pompeo’s comments, he said, were “not only disrespectful, but cynical”.
Therein lies Miraflores’s main interest in having the bombers land in Venezuela, i.e. President Maduro’s obsession that the US would invade his country, an obsession which he inherited from his predecessor, Hugo Chávez. It has to be said, however, that it is very hard to say whether the latter was genuinely convinced that an invasion was imminent or whether he simply used the allegation for nationalistic purposes in order to create an external enemy and rouse the crowds in his support.
For his part, however, President Maduro does appear to believe that Venezuelan territory might be invaded by the Americans, a view which he could claim was given reinforcement as a consequence of an early wild remark from President Trump. The BBC quoted him as referring to an attempt, “directly co-ordinated from the White House to disturb democratic life in Venezuela and to try to launch a coup d’état against the constitutional, democratic and free government of our country.”
Venezuelan Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino was reported by the BBC as saying the aircraft were part of air force exercises with its Russian allies: “This we are going to do with our friends, because we have friends in the world who defend respectful, balanced relations.”
The BBC went on to report the Minister as saying, “We are preparing to defend Venezuela to the last inch when necessary.”
As it was, the Russians, it seems, having made their point, did not intend to stay long. Reuters reported White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders as saying in an email: “We have spoken with representatives of Russia and have been informed that their military aircraft, which landed in Venezuela, will be leaving on Friday [Dec 14] and going back to Russia.”
It might be noted too that such aircraft have landed in Venezuela before, namely in 2008 and 2013. Of course at that time, it was a rather different world. President Chávez was in Miraflores, and more rational US presidents were ensconced at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, to wit George W Bush in 2008 and Barack Obama in 2013. While Dmitry Medvedev occupied the Russian presidency on the first occasion, it was largely believed he was a placeman for Vladimir Putin, who had returned to office directly on his own account by the second. However, the invasion of the Crimea had not occurred as yet, so the stresses over Ukraine were still very much in the future.
While times may have changed, one does not imagine the Russians have any intentions at the present time of getting embroiled in a spat with the Americans on this continent, although given their investments in Venezuela, and the size of the debt owed to them by Caracas, they will no doubt support our western neighbour in other ways. Minister Greenidge’s cheery recitation of the length of time we have had relations with Moscow (since 1970) will not stand us in good stead in any discordance involving Venezuela.
That said, the Russians will be aware of the move to the right on the continent, particularly on the part of heavyweight, Brazil, and will no doubt take that into account when dealing with this part of the world.
If, however, at any time in the future in circumstances which cannot be predicted now, the Russians did come to see it as being in their interest to involve themselves in some disharmony centred on Venezuela, then it would be time for us to become concerned.
