Friday’s shock collapse of the government has raised immediate challenges for both the incumbent APNU+AFC and the PPP/C as to their presidential candidate for the 2019 general elections to be held in 90 days.
Though he himself has not yet addressed the matter, given his medical condition it is unlikely that President David Granger would be well enough to lead the governing coalition into the elections. Diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma earlier this year after being unwell for a number of weeks, the President has several more rounds of chemotherapy in Cuba going all the way up to May next year. This treatment can leave patients severely weak and the President would not likely be able to keep up with what is likely to be a gruelling three months.
The President would also face questions as to whether he would be considered fit enough for a five-year term in office were his coalition to win the elections.
After delaying its selection of a presidential candidate for months, the PPP will now barely have three months to introduce its choice to the wider public and give that person a chance to mobilise broad national support. That candidate would also face scrutiny and questions on their public record. The PPP executive committee will on Thursday begin the process of selecting the candidate and this will likely not conclude until early in the new year.
For APNU+AFC, the question of a presidential candidate could trigger internal tensions. The Cummingsburg Accord between the two groups accords the position of the presidential candidate to the A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) wing of the coalition. If as expected Granger is unable to run, the question then arises as to who will fill his shoes.
Following his recent absence from the country for medical examination and treatment abroad, observers have noted that Vice President and Minister of Foreign Affairs Carl Greenidge has been accorded top billing in APNU. Greenidge was the key speaker at the final APNU rally at Stabroek Square on the eve of the November 12 Local Government Elections. On Saturday, he delivered a brief address to the nation on the incursion of the Venezuelan Navy into Guyana’s waters even though the President has resumed duties and if he was unavailable, Prime Minister Moses Nagamootoo is the next ranking government official.
Sources say that Greenidge, who had been beaten by Granger in a close contest for leadership of the PNCR might be seen as the best candidate to take over from the President in the 2019 race given his wide experience as Finance Minister in the Hoyte administration and later as a long-serving international civil servant with the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group and other posts. Since being appointed as Minister in 2015, Greenidge has not been tainted by scandals which have enmeshed other senior government officials.
As it relates to other potential contenders to succeed Granger, the
de factor PNCR number two official, PNCR Chairman Volda Lawrence has been caught up in a raging controversy over remarks at a Region Four District conference about going giving jobs to PNC people. She also uttered words that referred to violence and has not apologized for them.
Lawrence, also the Minister of Public Health, was on Friday cited by MP Charrandas Persaud as a major reason behind why he made his surprise vote in favour of the PPP/C’s motion of no-confidence against the government. He adverted to her statements at the PNCR district meeting and alleged that she had issued threats to him. Given the controversy surrounding her, Lawrence would not be seen as a candidate capable of mobilizing support outside of the PNCR base at a time when the governing coalition will need to broaden its appeal.
Aside from Lawrence, APNU Chairman Joseph Harmon will likely be advancing his credentials for the post, He had earlier this year transmitted his clear intent to be considered as a successor to Granger when he competed for the post of PNCR Chairman in a three-way race with Lawrence and the then incumbent, Attorney General Basil Williams. Lawrence easily beat both men.
Harmon, who observers have argued has been seen as the de facto Prime Minister since he took up office, has been at the centre of several blunders which have not gone away such as a remark he made after 50% increases were awarded to some Cabinet ministers, intervention by him with the Guyana Revenue Authority over Chinese company Baishanlin and a still-questioned trip to China with the owner of BK International, Brian Tiwarie.
Prior to the election of the new PNCR Chairman this year, Williams had been seen as a prime candidate to succeed Granger. However his poor showing in the three-way race with Lawrence and Harmon and the loss of a number of key court cases against the State have marked him down.
PNCR General Secretary Amna Ally is not seen as a potential candidate to succeed Granger.
PPP
As for the PPP, one key question that has routinely been raised in the public domain is the extent of the hold that party leader, Bharrat Jagdeo will have over the successful candidate. In 2011, Jagdeo almost singlehandedly steered the presidential nomination to Donald Ramotar who after his election with a minority in parliament faced unending questions about being beholden to Jagdeo.
Political observers believe that whoever is the PPP/C’s candidate, that person would be anointed by Jagdeo and would naturally face questions about who is calling the shots.
Of the leading candidates, former Minister Dr Frank Anthony is seen as relatively unblemished and a safe pick. He is however not seen as candidate with the ability to excite crowds and gee up the PPP’s base.
Of the other candidates, both Irfaan Ali and Anil Nandlall have been charged and have appeared in court, raising questions about the wisdom of picking a candidate who could possibly be convicted of a criminal offence.
Opposition Chief Whip, Gail Teixeira, who is seen as close to Jagdeo, has been mentioned as a possible candidate particularly if Lawrence was to be the APNU candidate. However, sources say she is more likely to be considered for the prime ministerial spot.
Medical doctor, Vindhya Persaud and Attorney Charles Ramason Jr have also been mentioned in connection with the leadership contest.
Both the APNU and PPP decisions could come very soon considering that general elections have to be held in 90 days following Friday’s successful motion of no-confidence against the government.
