Introduction
Empirical observations, research and analysis, along with widely recorded historical experiences reveal that, beyond doubt, Guyana’s coming time of oil and gas production and their export will be fraught with severe risks. As has been repeatedly indicated over the three years of my columns on this topic, risks and challenges are endemic to the petroleum sector.
In the case of Guyana, I had earlier advanced the proposition that two of these risks are existential. These are: 1) the geo-strategic/political risk posed by Venezuela’s aggression; and 2) the ever present threat of an environmental catastrophe.
Existential risk has been identified for the purposes of the Road Map in the dimension of “getting petroleum revenues.” This is listed as the fourth Guidepost for this dimension, which today’s column addresses. I note here, however, that I have added a third existential risk, arising from recent national political developments. This is the risk of intensified internal political conflict and strife, directly and indirectly spilling over to Guyana’s petroleum “finds.” This threat will be introduced later to the discussion, where appropriate.