I bore – or upset – many friends and readers whenever I repeat herein my limitations and feelings of being “out-of-my-depth” with respect to certain national issues. Like the emerging oil and gas sector.
However, after reading carefully a troubling but persuasive commentary by Attorney-at-Law – and obviously a knowledgeable about the intricacies of oil discoveries in under-developed states – Melinda Janki, I’m with certain caution, attempting brief commentary. Using Attorney Janki’s insights as powerful context.
But first two up-front points: two years ago a few friends and I had wondered whether Stabroek’s friendly rival, Kaieteur News, had some hidden surreptitious agenda against Exxon’s oil discoveries and their national consequences. For weeks Kaieteur would carry relatively scathing reports and “threatening” doomsday advisories on front pages and inside.
Gradually though, we the skeptical eventually appreciated the relentless warnings and exposes published by the KN. Even I can now commend that paper. His Excellency’s Coalition can never claim not to have been made aware of the numerous, ominous pitfalls likely as Guyana proceeds to First Oil 2020.
Secondly, I’m hoping that His Excellency’s Coalition and Energy Department are not upset by daily criticisms and advice being offered. The Department’s experts, consultants and advisers, by now, should easily define what’s valid from what’s useless. I support the four-year-old Administration that has inherited this challenging addition to our fragile economy. The government needs all the useful assistance it can get. But how will our politicians relate to the professionals in oil?
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Hopeful politicians, Ms Janki’s “advisories”
Leaving aside the fact that Guyana’s various oil findings will stimulate significant reactions from political/governmental leaders in our neighbouring continental states; and that North American politicians are invoking expected robust interest in Guyana’s looming wealth and enhanced geo-strategic status, we here can easily discern the current hopes, expectations and (short-term/long-term) agendas of our political dudes – in and out of “power”.
Naturally, as elections beckon, the name of the game is bound to include the influence, management and some form of control when the oil flows some months from now. Just watch “the politics of oil” inspire the quest for political longevity. But what is Attorney Janki pointing out regarding any sustained returns from our “Black Gold”?
Well Ms Janki quotes some powerful international oil and gas monitors as well as some responsible governments and regulators. These include the prestigious Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (NY, USA), the Huffington Post, Oxford Economist Dieter Helm, the Governor of the Bank of England, the Attorney-General of New York State. Besides revealing some of ExxonMobil’s deceptions with respect to Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change, Ms Janki’s sources all point to the very imminent likelihood that the oil to be “harvested” from our territorial waters could become “stranded fossil fuel assets”. Meaning that in the foreseeable future, oil won’t be worth much because of the implications of the 2015 Paris Agreement reducing carbon-emissions over the planet in danger of global warming.
I hereby recommend for studious reading Ms Janki’s May 19, 2019 SN piece titled “First oil or fool’s gold – Guyana’s proposed oil venture and the global economy”.
Reportedly, Saudi Arabia, Norway, China and India are all turning away from hydro-carbons (oil) being drilled. Just one quote from Janki’s SN piece “Last month Norway, whose vast wealth comes from oil, said no to drilling in its Lofoten Islands which are estimated to hold up to 3 billion barrels of oil. In contrast, according to the analysts of the first quarter results, ExxonMobil `continued its drill, drill, drill strategy and paid an increase in dividends, even as a gang of ugly financial facts slaughtered its business model.’ Why is Guyana putting its faith in an obsolete and allegedly fraudulent business model?”
Months ago, after a session at Moray House, I heard and read of Ms Janki being described as a “gloom-and-doom” analyst supposedly anti-oil. I know not enough to think that she is completely against our emerging industry. I just hope that our fledgling experts take notice. And that Ms Janki’s dire predictions take years to come “true”.
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Buju/APNU/Myrie/PNC?
I’ll be forever “intrigued” with the issue of old-time mores and values; the question of morality and its evolution. Locally and internationally.
Over the past two years top Hollywood, USA executives, American politicians and media and entertainment moguls have fallen to the accusations – and convictions – relevant to sexual assault, fraud and forms of corruption.
From Bill Cosby and R Kelly to Matt Lauer and numerous “stars” of all races, those once beheld as icons have tasted the disgrace of law and public opinion.
Changing morality questions whether a powerfully creative pervert should have his masterpieces not liked anymore. President Bill Clinton, President Trump, Cosby and Kelly have all contributed to people’s lives. But many now consider them tainted personalities. (I’ve just been reading about the real dark sides of Martin Luther King and Frank Sinatra!)
It’s now obvious that Jamaican Mark Myrie/Buju Banton was an early election campaigner for APNU/PNC. He paid his “debt-to-society” for seven years for a conviction for cocaine – a drug that devastates the youth he says he loves. I missed his apologies. But his songs are still Jamaican gems of music. So?
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Just consider…
1. The three bandits brutalised Old Bonnie and her paralysed husband for their pensions. When caught, they pleaded “not guilty” in court. Our justice system offered them a fair trial. They were not touched, not brutalised.
2. From murder to manslaughter. They all did kill. But “circumstances” dictate(d) a lighter sentence. “Justice” for whom?
3. Mohabir Anil held his own with his response to His Excellency’s GECOM Chairman earlier this week.
4. In the red corner: Comrades Rohee, Hydar, Robeson, Ramotar, Ramsammy, Teixeira and two Singhs. In the green corner: the Presidency’s Communication, Vice –President Nagamootoo’s DPI, Chronicle, NCN TV/radio, et al.
’Til next week
