Dear Editor,
I gather from the reactions of both the government and opposition to the CCJ rulings that both remain stubbornly committed to the usual way. The usual way of one or the other of the less-than-majority (in percentage terms) population groups taking the reins to govern over the other, the larger, when combined, groups. That thinking has to be extinguished as that model no longer holds and for the worst of reasons.
This much is irrefutable, and where I stand, there can be no governing alone; on this there can be no turning back. The former represents chronic, lasting failure; the latter projects possible future promise. Here are only some of the reasons why.
The opposition brass’ immediate response was to call for immediate elections. It must be clearly understood what that means if the PPP wins, whether in early or later elections. I caution that the language henceforth and its implications are stark, if not disturbing. Guyana’s reality. In the event of a PPP electoral victory, the physical environment would have to be all but surrendered. It would be reliving prior elections, and intensifying of that stormy interlude following the jailbreak. Violence spiraling. Dormant proxy enforcers put to work. Criminal and extrajudicial rampages. Tolls rising. Psychological fears abounding. This is the democracy of Guyana: what we say, what it is, and how it must be.
No matter how confident, or denied, political and social instability, racial rancor, and commercial stagnation are sure to follow. Anyone who disagrees either does not know the real Guyana or needs to have their head examined. Too deep in the sand, too much pretended innocence. This time it could be worse than any time before: more guns, more resources, more readiness, more wisdom, and more resolve.
On the other hand, the government wins. There is a different reality taking a chokehold then. Local economic forces, more accurately powers, long held in frustrated check lock cashbox; lessen legitimate business activities; expand underground economy; withhold foreign exchange supply; blow wide open crucial foreign exchange rates; and severely disrupt and depress economic endeavours in general. Together, this cripples the state’s cash collections, jobs, imports and exports, turnover, buying power, consumer and business sentiment, and quality of life. All of this has the potential to bring about raw social unrest of a different kind. Less confrontational (perhaps); less violent (debatable); yet just as menacing and grave, if not existential. The calculated violence of shortages, black markets, crime, backtrack, acute malaise. Intense pressure. A nation limping on tiptoe.
These are the lessons from PPP and PNC governance realities which Guyanese have endured in the past, admittedly at lesser scales and lower degrees than is promised now. Whether consensus chair or clean or corrupt list, or early or later elections. Inestimably worse than before is promised. Neither political group brings broad-based comforting. None offers the best foot forward. Too much pent-up passions. Too much regulation. Too much anger and bitterness. Too much by way of self-serving ambitions.
Yet, I observe both groups determined to power ahead alone. Alone. There are several catastrophic situations. First problem: because of oil, neither side is prepared to yield an inch and step away from the precipice. Second consideration: because of oil (and ExxonMobil) both sides know the gravy train involved and desire deliriously to be the first and only boarder, traveler, and partaker. Third chess piece: the US State Department (and Defense) will not relinquish its geopolitical, petro-commercial, and resurgent vital strategic interests a la Latin America in general, and Venezuela specifically. Not with the inroads realised; not with the internal beachheads and strangleholds established. And if regulations, sanctions, and CFATF and the like are to have continuing relevance and significance, then there can be no allowing of Guyana to go to the dogs. They are more than politically rabid: just listen to them of late. Something must give. Someone. Or both.
Diplomatic signals have been quickly sent post-CCJ in not-so-nuanced messages and telling postures. There have been visits to political players with broader rounds likely. Foreign people are on the prowl; messages are moving. Call those big power pressures on lesser mortals; neophytes really in the big game of bigger plays for the biggest prizes. Internationally, they are enormous. Get with the programme. Don’t think anyone is calling any shots here. Not unilaterally. No!
I say this today; After all the hard talk and the tough guy swaggers from local political leaders (both sides), this is where all roads have to lead and must end: No governing alone. No turning back.
Yours faithfully,
GHK Lall