DUBAI/VIENNA, (Reuters) – Iran announced yesterday it had amassed more low-enriched uranium than permitted under its 2015 deal with major powers, its first major step beyond the terms of the deal since the United States pulled out of it more than a year ago.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who announced the move, said it nevertheless did not amount to a violation of the accord, arguing that Iran was exercising its right to respond to the U.S. walkout.
The step, however, could have far-reaching consequences for diplomacy at a time when European countries are trying to pull the United States and Iran back from the brink of war. It comes less than two weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered air strikes on Iran, only to cancel them minutes before impact.
European powers, who remain party to the accord and have tried to keep it in place, urged Iran not to take further steps that would violate it. But they held off on declaring the agreement void or announcing sanctions of their own.
The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which monitors Iran’s nuclear programme under the deal, confirmed in Vienna that Tehran had breached the limit.
“We have NOT violated the #JCPOA,” Zarif wrote on Twitter, referring to the deal by its formal title, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
“Para 36 of the accord illustrates why. We triggered & exhausted para 36 after US withdrawal,” he wrote, referring to a paragraph of the accord which contains the mechanism for countries to resolve disputes. He said Iran had waited 60 weeks after notifying other signatories before acting.
“As soon as E3 abide by their obligations, we’ll reverse,” he said, referring to European powers Britain, Germany and France, which Iran has demanded guarantee it the access to world trade envisioned under the deal.
The move is a test of European diplomacy after French, British and German officials had promised a strong diplomatic response if Iran fundamentally breached the deal.
The Europeans, who opposed last year’s decision by Trump to abandon the agreement signed under his predecessor Barack Obama, had pleaded with Iran to keep within its parameters.
Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said Britain wants to preserve the pact “because we don’t want Iran to have nuclear weapons. But if Iran breaks that deal then we are out of it as well.”
Iran has said it aims to keep the accord in place but cannot abide by its terms indefinitely, as long as sanctions imposed by Trump have deprived it of the benefits it was meant to receive in return for accepting curbs on its nuclear programme.
U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres is concerned about Iran’s moves, spokesman Stephane Dujarric said.
“Such action by the Islamic Republic of Iran would not help preserve the plan, nor secure the tangible economic benefits for the Iranian people. It is essential that this issue…be addressed through the mechanism established by the JCPOA.”
A European diplomat told Reuters there was a mechanism under the agreement to deal with “any inconsistencies”, and it would be up to a joint commission of signatories to decide next steps.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the European countries should “stand behind their commitments” and impose “automatic sanctions” on Iran.
“ECONOMIC WAR”
Iran announced in May that it would speed up production of enriched uranium in response to the Trump administration sharply tightening sanctions against it that month. Washington has now effectively ordered all countries to halt purchases of Iranian oil or face sanctions of their own, which Tehran calls “economic war” designed to starve its population.
In the two months since the sanctions were tightened, the confrontation has taken on a military dimension, with Washington blaming Tehran for attacks on oil tankers, and Iran shooting down a U.S. drone, prompting the aborted U.S. air strikes.
The nuclear deal imposes limits both on how much enriched uranium Iran can hold and on how pure its stocks can be, thresholds intended to lengthen the “breakout period” – the time Tehran would need to build a nuclear bomb if it sought one.
Zarif said Iran’s next move would be to enrich uranium beyond the maximum 3.67% fissile purity allowed under the deal, a threshold Tehran has previously said it would cross on July 7.
Iran’s moves so far appear to be a calculated test of the deal’s enforcement mechanisms and the diplomatic response.
“This is not an irreversible step the Iranians have taken. Iran, with the remaining partners, can decide how they’re going to proceed. There is a process in the JCPOA to try to cure breaches,” said Wendy Sherman, Obama’s lead U.S. negotiator on the deal and now director of the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School.
“This does not in and of itself reduce the breakout time period, which is essential here,” she said.
IRAN SHUNNED
The Europeans say they want to help Iran boost its economy. But so far European efforts to do so have failed, with Iran shunned on oil markets and major foreign companies abandoning plans to invest for fear of falling foul of U.S. rules.
The confrontation has put the United States in the position of demanding that the Europeans ensure Iranian compliance with an agreement that Washington itself has rejected. Trump argues that the deal is too weak because some of its terms are not permanent, and because it does not cover non-nuclear issues such as Iran’s ballistic missile programme and regional behaviour.
Washington says sanctions are aimed at pushing Tehran back to the negotiating table. Iran says it cannot talk as long as Washington is ignoring the deal that it signed.
Israel, which considers the Iranian nuclear programme an existential threat, has backed Trump’s hard line, as have U.S. allies among the rich Arab states of the Gulf, which consider Iran a foe and benefit from having its oil kept off markets.
“Just imagine what will happen if the material stockpiled by the Iranians becomes fissionable, at military enrichment grade, and then an actual bomb,” Joseph Cohen, head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, told a security conference. “The Middle East, and then the entire world, will be a different place.”