The news that the ExxonMobil will commence commercial oil production in December would have come as a surprise to many Guyanese given that, for some time now, ‘the first quarter of 2020’ had been the widely publicized timeline for the development. The difference between the original timeline and what now appears to be a definitive adjustment is, we are told, not altogether surprising. It would appear that with exercises as complex and, sometimes as risk-prone as oil recovery, where setbacks are sometimes commonplace, the setting of timelines takes account of the desirability of taking those considerations into account. This, it seems, has been the case in this instance; so that there is every likelihood that ExxonMobil would have been aware, beforehand, that the December timeline was in the frame but would have been playing its cards close to its chest until it was convinced beyond reasonable doubt that it could be done.
The news, of course, is nowhere as earth-shattering as that which was visited upon us in May 2015 even though it is decidedly uplifting to know that what, up until recently, was a valued resource and an eventual game-changer for the Guyana economy can and will begin to bring benefits to the people and the economy, possibly within a shorter time span than might have been expected. In a sense, the new timeline for ‘first oil,’ is a kind of final confirmation that oil, for us, is no longer a pipe dream.
Other developments have occurred since then and in each of those, oil and development have been factored in. Whatever the pretence to the contrary the political ones are paramount. The coincidence between the disclosure that ExxonMobil will be extracting oil by December, on the one hand, and then the fact of general elections very early in March would not, of course, be lost to the political parties running for office, nor for that matter to the people who will be going to the polls. So that while previous general elections have been described as the most important one in the country’s history, this one would appear to leapfrog its earlier rivals. We have grown accustomed to those altruistic pronouncements of our politicians at election time. There will doubtless be more of those this time around. With oil having now become an even more immediate factor than it was when the ‘first quarter, 2020’ timeline was in vogue, choosing a government at this particular time is likely to be a different kind of test for the Guyanese people.
The issues of how and when the monies from ‘first oil’ can and will be spent are likely to make an immediate–term presence in the national discourse and in the various opinionated offerings in the newspapers, the bottom line of course having to do very much with which political administration holds office when the returns from first oil become available. Conceivably, the shifted timeline for ‘first oil’ when attached to the present political circumstances in the country may even result in pre and post-elections arrangements that may have been considered unlikely just a few days ago. However high-sounding our politicians have become, the political parties can hardly pretend that where they stand in relation to access to oil resources post May 2, 2020 is not likely to be one of the considerations that inform their pre and post-elections choices.
There is, of course, the issue of the allocation of the resources from oil in a manner that best serves the interests of the people of Guyana as a whole. All of the political parties will doubtless lay claim to that intention though few rule out the possibility that even the best of intentions are likely to be attended by rogue initiatives. That is one of the imponderables for which there is no answer at this time.
Perhaps the key issue at this stage is what one might call the certainty of oil and the reality, finally, of the economic and developmental future of our country finally being placed in our hands. After that it will be up to this generation of Guyanese and to future ones.
