The Liberty and Justice Party has now brought itself into alignment with three other small parties by eschewing an alliance with either the governing Coalition or the PPP/C for the purposes of the 2020 election. It has not ruled out the possibility of coalescing in the future, but Chairman and presidential candidate Lenox Shuman told a news conference last week that it was in the nation’s interest at the moment to have a “balancing” third force, and that his party intended to be that ‘third force.’
This will presumably not be such good news for the two party juggernauts, since nowadays both of them need votes from outside their ethnic bases to accede to office – the one more so than the other. Both would require Indigenous electoral support to a greater or lesser degree, but in a general sense that has been split in previous polls. While no one at this stage can be sure what will happen this time around, the possibility exists that Mr Shuman may be able for the first time since the 1960s to attract votes from most of the nine Indigenous nations in this country.
The third force which brought APNU into office in 2015 was the AFC, but all the signs are that the larger partner in the Coalition no longer believes that its political associate can deliver the number of votes that it did four-and-a-half years ago. If so, it would be a belief not without foundation. Furthermore, neither of the two main parties has what one might consider a charismatic, or even popular leader to appeal to electors beyond the frontiers of their ethnic bases. President David Granger came into office with a fair amount of goodwill, but subsequently squandered that, more particularly in the period since the vote of no confidence last December. He is now in a position where his democratic credentials are under severe stress.
As for Mr Irfaan Ali, he has had questions concerning his academic profile swirling around him since his candidacy for the PPP/C’s presidential nomination was announced, and the award of a PhD from UWI has done nothing to suppress the queries about the circumstances under which some of his earlier qualifications were obtained. In addition, of course, he is very much perceived as an acolyte of Mr Bharrat Jagdeo, who might be taking on a Medvedev role while a Vladimir Putin functions from behind the scenes.
The tradition has been for incumbent governments to tempt Indigenous voters with outboard engines a bit of road resurfacing and the like, something which will favour the Coalition this time around, since they are the party in office. Whether such largesse will be sufficient on this occasion to neutralise the appeal of what might be perceived as a primarily Indigenous party remains to be seen.
Campaigning in the interior of Guyana is a dauntingly expensive business, which is another reason why sitting governments always have a built-in advantage and have been routinely accused – not without justification – of using state resources for what essentially are party political purposes. We reported Mr Shuman as saying that funds for his party since its launch had been provided largely by people “who give a $5,000 here, a $2,000 there … We have not had any significant contributions.” However, it is maybe conceivable that the allure of an Indigenous party will override campaign deficiencies brought about by a lack of funds, but only time will tell.
While as said earlier, the LJP has announced that at this time the nation requires a balancing third force, it should be noted that we had reported last month that Mr Shuman had engaged in discussions with APNU about possibly coalescing. Exactly what transpired in those meetings has never been publicly disclosed; however, at the news conference Mr Shuman said that a non-negotiable requirement of any possible coalition with either the PPP/C or the APNU+AFC would be to extend the opportunity to become president or prime minister to Guyanese of all ethnicities. This was a reference to the tradition of the PNC of only selecting African-Guyanese as their presidential candidates, and in the case of the PPP, nearly always Indian-Guyanese for the post.
The public will speculate whether this was one of the reasons why the LJP backed away from a coalition with APNU. Certainly it is not a demand the latter party would have been prepared to concede when it was locked in negotiations with the AFC, and where agreement on the prime ministerial nominee still had not been reached with its existing coalition partner. In any event, from APNU’s point of view the LJP is possibly an unknown quantity.
Whatever the case, as mentioned above, the LJP has now joined A New and United Guyana, the Federal United Party and The New Movement in declaring they have no intention of forming a coalition with either of the two large parties. It has not, however, taken the further step that they have of stating that should any of them not make it to nomination day, that party’s resources would be thrown behind another third force.
The real issue is whether there is a sustainable third force in Guyana’s politics at the present time, if, as is sometimes hypothesised, disillusioned AFC voters opt to stay home on March 2. Even if that were to be the case, however, if the LJP emerged as a party with a wide Indigenous base, then for demographic reasons it would become a third force and we would be into a new ethnic scenario.
But the earlier AFC success was not dependent on Indigenous support; it is thought to have come from disaffected Indians as well as a younger urban vote. If, as has also been claimed in some quarters, that the AFC Indians have returned to their ethnic political base – and that is not certain − there are surely now some disaffected APNU supporters to replace them, not to mention more numerous AFC supporters who will feel let down by their party and rather than not vote will be casting around for an alternative.
It seems reasonable to suppose that those seeking a real change in Guyana’s political system are still there and are not going away. The possible emergence of an Indigenous party aside, the issue is whether they exist in enough numbers and additionally are willing to vote, to have an influence on our politics. There are certainly enough small parties mushrooming up for them to choose from, although some of these will turn out not to be viable. It is possibly not the programmes which such parties are offering which will be critical − although most, including the LJP, want constitutional reform at some level − but how well known the personalities which comprise them are. After the disappointment of the AFC, electors perhaps want a greater sense of confidence about their leaders. Promises are one thing, but integrity quite another.
