Dear Editor,
I shall be more prolix that usual as the subject merits it; Guyana’s oil future. It was the subject of a well-attended public seminar at the Cass Business School in the City of London on Monday night, organised in conjunction with the Guyana High Commissioner to the UK Hamley Case.
Some interesting new lines emerged from what was a fairly formal static ‘discussion’.
A. Total is now fully operational in Guyana. They have bought into interests in three fields offshore Guyana. The country manager Olivier Wattez hinted that they might have a significant announcement about the Kanuku field before Xmas.
B. Many speakers assumed that ‘first oil’ would happen in the Stabroek field pre-Xmas.
C. Francis Kiernan of Abis Energy produced some rather interesting charts based on ExxonMobil information that big money would be invested up to 2025 but payback would begin as soon as 2028, return on capital would come within five years, peak production from the Stabroek field would be close to a million barrels a day in 2027, gas production could also peak in 2027/28.
In plain English, the Stabroek field is a gold mine for ExxonMobil. They invest heavily up front but rewards come soon, maybe sooner than normal.
D. High Commissioner Case announc-ed the government was working on a series of strategies to use their share of the oil money. One of them might involve using some of it to consider moving the administrative capital inland – close to the Linden-Soesdyke Highway – to get away from the dangers of climate change and flooding on the coastal belt.
E. The Head of the Department of Energy Dr Mark Bynoe also appeared by Skype but by and large stuck to his public pronouncements to date. He did not take audience questions.
The audience – members of the diaspora and business students at Cass and elsewhere – looked interested even if they were not able to engage fully.
Guyana’s oil future is plainly of global business importance.
Yours faithfully,
John ‘Bill Cotton/Reform’ Mair
