By Ulric Trotz
Ulric Trotz is the Deputy Director & Science Adviser, Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize
After the euphoria pervading the international community at the end of COP 21 when there was unanimous global agreement on the Paris Agreement which defined a way forward for global action on climate change, there is now universal despair (barring a few) in the wake of the recently concluded COP 25 in Madrid which is now generally regarded as an abject failure. CARICOM countries, along with their partners in the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and other developing countries, entered the negotiations with high hopes that they would see agreement on several outstanding issues that need to be addressed to ensure that globally we were on a path to achieve the goals of the Paris agreement. There is an urgent imperative to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
As part of the requirements of the UNFCCC, countries were required to submit what is termed their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), essentially statements of intent outlining national actions to reduce their Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. Developing countries were also requested to include in the NDC a description of actions needed to build resilience to the emerging regime of climate risks (Adaptation), with a view to setting a platform for financial support for the implementation of these actions. Most countries have complied with this request so that the UNFCCC has an inventory of global NDCs. On aggregation of the GHG reductions that were submitted it became evident that they would not result in the desired outcome of a 1.5 degree Celsius warming by the end of the century – indeed with the present commitments we will be on track for a 4.00 degree centigrade warming, with catastrophic consequences. Based on these figures, it was expected that the major GHG polluters would commit to what is referred to as “increased ambition” and agree to a much more aggressive domestic GHG reduction programme so as to at least achieve the warming goals reflected in the Paris agreement. Developing countries which bear the brunt of impacts of existential climate change have had no problem in accepting the call for “increased ambition” in their NDCs and are all committed to reflect this in their revised NDCs. However with significant push back from countries like the USA, Australia, Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, COP could not agree to make this requirement mandatory. Similarly there was reluctance committing to the provision of the necessary finances that would allow developing countries to implement their NDCs and build resilience to climate change impacts.
The review of the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage (WIM) did yield some positive results as it established a linkage with the financial mechanism of the Convention. Developing countries had successfully negotiated WIM, which provided a roadmap for addressing the issue under the UNFCCC. They were now pressing for access to the resources to address the impacts of “slow onset” events like warmer temperatures and sea level rise and the losses that would still be experienced after resilience building measures have been implemented. Unfortunately, these gains were tarnished by the insistence of the developed countries to introduce language on liability and compensation into the issue of governance which developing countries rejected. As a result the issue of governance of the WIM remains unresolved.
There were other issues which the conference failed to make decisions on, notably the one addressing transparency in the implementation of the Paris Agreement e.g. mechanisms to ensure that actions for the achievement of the goals of the Agreement were carried out as pledged. In a nutshell, our greatest disappointment lay in the fact that there was no agreement on accelerated global action (especially from the large polluters) to curb GHG emissions and the provision of the financial resources required for developing countries like ours to build the resilience of our human and natural systems to present and future shocks of climate change. Our anxiety is informed by fact that on a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario with respect to the present global level of GHG emissions, we are looking at a greater than 3.5 degree rise of global temperatures by the end of this century. Much more compelling is the finding in the recently published IPCC report which supported the region’s call for keeping global warming at 1.5 degree centigrade, that on our BAU trajectory it is very likely that we will see that level of warming by the end of the 2030’s. In a 1.5 degree warmer world the report goes on to say that about seventy five percent of the reef systems that sustain Caribbean well-being and livelihoods will disappear with a total annihilation of this critical ecosystem were global temperatures to rise by 2 degrees
centigrade! These preoccupations define our call for urgent action for the successful implementation of the Paris agreement and our extreme disappointment with the outcomes of COP 25.
Let us briefly turn our attention to what I consider a significant development which took place at COP but outside of the glare of the negotiations. We have all been exposed to the excellent campaign of our youth, a campaign recognised by Time magazine’s person of the year, Greta Thunberg. Young people are asserting their right to express concern about the type of world our generation will bequeath to them if drastic and urgent action is not taken to deal with present and future threats on climate change. Global youth certainly had a presence at COP 25 and did their very best to make their voices heard and to interact with the different key interest groups gathered in Madrid. What fell under the radar is the fact that UNICEF launched a “Declaration on Children, Youth and Climate Action” in Madrid, reflecting priorities identified by children and youth throughout the world. It included expanding investment in protecting children from disasters and helping them adapt to climate threats; beefing up education on environmental issues; and enabling the participation of young people in climate change policy-making. The declaration was signed on December 9th by nine countries: Chile, Costa Rica, Fiji, Luxembourg, Monaco, Nigeria, Peru, Spain and Sweden, and is open for signature by other countries that are parties to the UNFCCC. In the climate change community we stress that despite whatever is being done now to curb greenhouse gases, climate will continue to change due to the GHG emissions that are already in the atmosphere.
Given this, I would like to draw attention to one action area articulated in the Declaration: “Strengthen the capacity of children and young people on climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts by establishing and investing in climate change and environmental education, and equipping children and young people with the knowledge and skills required to protect themselves and contribute to a safe and sustainable future, ensuring that such efforts reach marginalized children and youth.” This has implications for our educational systems here in the Caribbean and globally. For instance all of the emerging techniques developed under the “climate smart agriculture” umbrella should be introduced in schools so that our youth who may take up farming as a career come out of the educational system armed with the tools that would allow them to survive and be successful. We are all talking about greening the economy but have we assessed the skill base that would be required to effect such a change? With reference to our aspirations to employ renewable energy and energy efficiency measures, are our Technical Institutes training the new cadre of technicians to install and service solar energy systems, wind turbines, biogas units and to carry out energy audits? It is imperative, especially in view of our sluggish approach to deal with climate change issues, that we equip our younger generation with the knowhow and wherewithal to cope with the challenges of living in a world of changing climate .
In this respect two regional initiatives come to mind. The first is the Caribbean Climate Innovation Center (CCIC) which was launched in 2013 as a Consortium jointly managed by two leading scientific institutions in the Caribbean, the Scientific Research Council (SRC) based in Kingston, Jamaica and the Caribbean Industrial Research Institute (CARIRI) located in Trinidad and Tobago. CCIC is a part of infoDev’s Climate Technology Program (CTP) which focuses on empowering developing countries to proactively and profitably adapt, develop and deploy climate smart (clean tech) technologies and business models. infoDev is a World Bank Group program that supports high-growth entrepreneurs in developing economies. This CTP is part of the broader Entrepreneurship Program for Innovation in the Caribbean (EPIC) program being funded by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA). I had the privilege of Chairing the Management Committee of the CCIC in its formative years. Since its establishment CCIC continues to fulfill its mandate and CCIC’s Green Tech entrepreneurs have taken the lead in developing climate change solutions across the Caribbean. From renewable energy to eco-friendly construction, these companies are part of a global movement working to mitigate the impact of climate change on the world.
The more recent initiative is the Caribbean Improving Skills Training Program (CIST) which is designed to share the well-developed expertise in linking youth, educators, and employers of Canada’s colleges and institutes with counterpart institutions in six Caribbean countries where youth, women and indigenous populations face significant employment challenges, and in which coastal degradation and other climate change effects are the focus of new green and “blue” (ocean preservation) enterprises, government and, increasingly, industry interventions. The programme is being implemented by the Colleges and Institutes Canada (CICan) in Belize, Dominica, Guyana, Grenada, Jamaica and St. Lucia. CICan will work with Caribbean regional organizations including the Caribbean Association of National Training Authorities (CANTA), the Association of Caribbean Tertiary Institutions (ACTI), the Caribbean Employers’ Confederation (CEC), and the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre to conduct a green skills audit and to identify regional climate change mitigation priorities that will guide program development and delivery. This will ensure that programming developed will be of relevance to countries beyond those directly participating in the program and that it aligns with regional qualification standards such as the Caribbean Vocational Qualification and the CARICOM Regional Qualification Framework. CICan will also consult with the CARICOM Human Resources working group to seek their input on key skills needed to support regional initiatives.
Given its geographical location and several socio-economic challenges, the Caribbean represents one of the most vulnerable regions to the emerging threats of a changing global climate regime with daunting consequences for our developmental aspirations, safety and survival. Dorian and the devastation it wreaked on Abaco in The Bahamas is a grim harbinger for the future, especially in view of the lack of appropriate mitigative actions in the global arena. As we move forward it is imperative that we integrate climate risk in all of our decision making and endeavour to the best of our ability (resources permitting) to implement the necessary mitigative actions that would shield us from the ravages of climate change. Guyana’s impending oil revenue stream offers the country an excellent opportunity to do just that by investing in the implementation of its Green State Development Strategy and so assure its citizens of a future that is shaped by a climate resilient and low carbon development pathway.
