Dear Editor,
In his letter, published in SN on Christmas Day under the caption, `The KN oil ads have disseminated false info on Africa and Trinidad and should be withdrawn’, Foreign Secretary and former Finance Minister, Hon. Carl Greenidge wrote, “Guyana has endured more than one three-year period of negative growth under the PPP and the PNC and is currently expected to experience 86% growth in 2020.”
Not to take away from the essence of his argument, but on the growth point, did the Hon. Ex-Minister mean GDP or GNI growth? Total or per capita? Real or nominal? Current or constant? Stated or rolling average? Which base year? Respectfully, clarification goes abegging.
For example, using World Bank data, since Independence in 1966, Constant LCU (Local Currency Units adjusted for inflation), Guyana recorded negative GDP growth the following years: 1972, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1998, 2000, 2003, and 2005. The worst was 1982 (-13.1%) followed by 1989 (-4.9%). This data is available at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KN?locations=GY.
Using that data, there were therefore, three 3-year periods of negative GDP growth in our independent history; ‘77-’79, ‘82-’84 and ’88-90 inclusively; unfortunately, all under the PNC.
Using Current US dollar data – meaning viewing it in today’s US dollar values – we get a more realistic picture; and there were no 3-year periods of negative growth, although the trends were similar. No other 3-year negative growth periods could be found.
As would be expected, those trends were, generally similar for nearly all GDP and GDP per capita data. Our population had not grown much over these years; rising between 1966 and 1980-82, then declining until 1989.
Using Current US$, Guyana’s GDP had a bumpy ride but still trended upward between 1966 (US$228M), and 1992 (US$373M); averaging just under 2% growth annually in this period.
Nearly doubling between 1973 and 1980, then declining; by 1991, Guyana’s GDP (US$348M) had fallen to nearly half of its then all-time high of US$603M, recorded in 1980.
According to this World Bank data, between 1993 to 2018, Guyana’s GDP rose at an average annual growth rate of 9.8% to US$3.8 billion; among the highest sustained growth rates in the world.
By 1995 (US$621M), it had overtaken the 1980 record, and continued trending upward. The fastest growth period was from 2005 to 2016, in which a new growth record was set every year. In this period, GDP more than quadrupled from US$824M to US$3.5B. We had a relatively flat 2017 (US$3.55B – still a new record) and a return to the trend in 2018 (US$3.9B) – now the new record. This latter (US$) data is available at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=GY
Yours faithfully,
(Name and address supplied)