Can the decision announced late Friday by ANUG, the LJP and TNM to join their lists for the purpose of assigning parliamentary seats be a game-changer in alliance politics in this the 50th year of Republicanism?
Sometimes, well thought out legislation can fall into complete disuse in circumstances where the power dynamics are stultifying or the various stakeholders show insufficient curiosity in exploring options that are to their own benefit.
That certainly is the case with Section 22 of the Representation of the People Act which gives fledgling parties an opportunity to contest elections on their own merit and once their relative strengths are determined by the voters they can then combine their numbers to improve their chances of winning seats in Parliament.
The section states: “Subject to subsection (2), two or more lists of candidates shall be joined for the distribution of seats (but not for the purpose of voting) if the representative and deputy representative of each list to be so joined gives notice accordingly in writing not later than the 25th day before election day; and lists so joined are hereinafter referred to collectively as a combination of lists.” According to the former Speaker of the National Assembly and ANUG presidential candidate Ralph Ramkarran, this is the first time in Guyana’s history that this section has been activated.
One would have thought that this would have been the perfect mechanism for instance in the assigning of seats in the last local government elections between the various constituents of APNU+AFC where the presidency was not up for grabs. Since the Presidency is awarded to the contestant that gains a majority of the seats at general elections or at least plurality it would make no sense for the constituents of APNU+AFC to contest separately even though this would have definitively established the level of support today for the PNCR, the AFC and the WPA.
However, it makes eminent sense for A New and United Guyana (ANUG), the Liberty and Justice Party (LJP) and The New Movement (TNM) to vigorously test these uncharted waters. All of them are first-time contestants at the general and regional elections and no one knows what sort of impact they would have on the electorate. They all presented themselves late in the day – ANUG was launched on January 18, 2019, the LJP on January 12, 2019 and the TNM just around two months ago. That is hardly enough time to get going in a highly polarised political environment dominated by the two behemoths. Furthermore, these parties have shallow pockets and no grassroots organisation on the ground.
The three groups are also numerous degrees removed from each other in their political outlook and programmes – the LJP to its credit issued a manifesto very early in the season – but are united on one common goal: to shake up the status quo which bequeathed the Charrandass Persaud caretaker government that has continued in office for more than a year after being defeated by a motion of no-confidence. They are also intent on denying either of the two major parties a majority in Parliament.
While ANUG is heavily focused on securing constitutional reform and cajoling the two major parties to work together in an effort to bridge the ethno-political divide that has cleaved and bedevilled the country since independence, the LJP is seen as focusing significantly on the development needs of indigenous communities while the TNM seems geared to providing a harbour and voice for young professionals.
The 11th Parliament of Guyana was a two-group affair: APNU+AFC and the PPP/C. It became virtually paralysed in the aftermath of the successful December 2018 motion of no confidence against the government leaving the legislative agenda in tatters and stranding crucial pieces of oil and gas legislation. Prior to its dissolution on December 20th, 2019 its last meeting was on May 23rd, 2019 – a shocking dereliction which the current caretaker government must take full responsibility for.
There is no guarantee that if a smaller party or two were to win seats in Parliament that it would lead to any better functioning of this branch of government but it cannot surely be as suffocating and divisive as the last Parliament particularly considering the agendas that have so far been outlined by ANUG, LJP and TNM. They surely will be able to inspire some middle path and creative solutions to the myriad problems facing the country.
Can these list-joined parties spring a surprise on March 2nd? Given their limited resources the wild card could be the impact of social media. This is probably the first election campaign where the major and minor contenders are investing heavily in advertising and shaping their messages in cyberspace. Change Guyana – helmed by businessman Robert Badal – which is not part of the list amalgamation has been prominently present on social media and has so far conducted a non-traditional campaign. Another late entrant The Citizenship Initiative which launched on October 17, 2019 is also present on social media.
All of these new entrants to the political hustings are targeting in the main the independent and floating voters on the premise that the two major parties have their constituencies locked down. This cohort present mainly in urban areas is likely to be more engaged with social media than rural voters so there is a realistic prospect that they can be attracted by groups that are largely focused on tactical goals such as denying the main parties a majority, constitutional reform to entrench a new form of governance or developing indigenous communities.
March 2nd will be the moment of truth for these small parties but the joining of the lists can definitely upturn the present order/disorder. We shall see.
