Dear Editor,
Indians have always determined the outcome of general elections based not always on policies but by the virtue that they have been a majority population in Guyana where voters vote according to race and ethnicity. In the post-independence period, and from 1968 to 1992, Indians voted according to ethnic preference but that voting went to the then PNC through the rigging of elections during the aforesaid period. Indians’ votes inadvertently sustained the PNC in power, clandestinely. From 1992 to 2015, and even though the Indian population decreased due mainly to out-migration, their votes kept the PPP in power, although as a minority government from 2011 to 2015. The PPP became a minority government precisely because of the formation of the AFC in 2003 which gradually from that period began to attract Indian voters from the PPP. The 2015 general elections witnessed a substantial number of Indians, numbers which are difficult to pin down but large enough to allow the AFC now in the coalition with the PNC and other small parties named APNU to unseat the PPP. The middle-class Indians and their entourage helped, and if not single-handedly, provided the votes APNU needed to grab power. March 2, 2020, general election is the campaign for the swing votes, mainly of Indian extraction.
Africans and other ethnic groups including the mixed races also played an important role in determining the outcome of general elections analogous to Indians but somewhat differently. Like Indians, from 1968 to 1992 to 2015, Africans voted according to race and ethnicity, meaning that they also voted for their own kind to lead them. The difference, however, is that there has not been a noticeable crossing over of African voters from the PNC to the PPP and even to the AFC which was once seen as a mini-ethnic coalition but that sentiment eroded substantially. It is challenging to determine how many Africans, whether breaking away from PNC or joining independently, are in the AFC, which invariably is a moot point since that party has become PNC. Likewise, we notice the African leaders in the AFC but most of them are closet PNC supporters. The more the PPP challenged them the more they feel comfortable sitting on the lap of PNC, their prerogative. There is also one indisputable fact that will stay with us for a long time, and that is, do not expect an African to lead the PPP and likewise do not expect an Indian to lead APNU, reinforcing the thought that politics in Guyana is a racially and ethnically entrenched affair. A second layer of leadership has always been used to compensate for this deficiency.
The above dynamics will continue on March 2, 2020, general elections primarily because of the successful passage of the No-Confidence Motion (NCM) against the current caretaker regime. The regime has repeatedly violated this constitutional mandate in accordance with the tenets of democracy, and in so doing, has created more divisions among the two major groups never seen before in Guyana. The campaigning has helped to cement the divisions. What has emerged from the regime’s resistance to NCM is a culture of defiance towards abiding with the basic expectations of fair governance, an experience that should not be overlooked. Expect more of this behaviour should the regime be defeated at the polls. Any change to race and ethnic voting patterns might occur in 2025 because of oil revenues.
Yours faithfully,
Lomarsh Roopnarine
