Dear Editor
The two major parties persist in claiming election victory. Needless to say, the recount will identify the loser. Should the recount confirm a PPP defeat, the party has already activated the excuse that the process has been rigged. We can therefore expect various voices to chant eternally “cheated, not defeated.”
On the other hand, the APNU+AFC’s victory claim presents a more intriguing case. The coalition, it seems, has pre-purchased no political parachute should its claim crash. It has shown absolutely no interest in setting up a “cheated, not defeated” smokescreen. Quite the opposite, we hear it daringly asserting that the recount will give it a wider margin of victory. Nowhere in the coalition’s official challenges to the results in the PPP strongholds of Regions 3, 5 and 6, or in its broader allegation of PPP fraud, is it even hinting that the PPP has thereby swindled itself into office. From its composed management of the COVID pandemic to the long-term policy statements from a few key ministers, this is a government adopting a second-term posture, concerned only with the true size of its parliamentary majority.
For supporters of the coalition, if this behaviour does not reflect outright confidence in victory, then what does? For those in opposition, however, the bullishness signals that the coalition must have a diabolic plot to derail the recount and to forever bury the truth. The Monday editorial of Stabroek News (`There will be riggers at the recount’), for instance, displays this paranoia. The newspaper expects the coalition scrutineers to create “confusion and controversies” by using every opportunity to be disruptive during the recount. Maybe, in fairness, we should apply this test to all the political parties.
For what it’s worth, let’s digress to remind ourselves that the nation has conducted a successful national recount before, viz., the Caricom Electoral Audit of 1998 (the Cross Audit). This recount ensued amidst serious civil unrest, in circumstances that make the present dispute look like a storm in a teacup. Yet, for ten weeks at GECOM HQ, with minimum security and no local or international observers, and in the presence of zealous PNCR activists (myself included), the ballot papers were counted in an atmosphere of placidity.
Plainly, those who have now invested heavily in the coalition-rigging theory would blame the coalition for anything they do not like, even should a freak storm blow out the power at Arthur Chung.
No deep analysis is required to predict that should the recount confirm a coalition victory, the government would still be seen as illegitimate by too many. Even with Caricom’s validation, a coalition government would face an excessive acceptance deficit among masses of PPP supporters, and much of the local news media and civil society. While diplomatic recognition would clear a critical path, the unabated attacks from losers and loathers would surely put the government and country under stress.
To counteract, a second-term coalition government will have to do three things well: (i) upheave and invigorate its anaemic political and PR strategy and operations, (ii) competently execute a national exit strategy from the COVID pandemic, and (iii), most critically, radically rethink Guyana’s politics, economics and society (a Guyana 2.0). Even initial steps to point the country in these directions can detoxify and vitalize the nation’s innards.
Yours faithfully,
Sherwood Lowe
