Despite the understandable desire by some in tourism to talk up a ‘return to normal’, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the industry’s recovery from the pandemic will be slow and uncertain, largely because infection rates in the region’s principal overseas markets continue to rise.
This suggests that the timing of any return to pre-pandemic tourism buoyancy now depends on factors far beyond the region’s control and full recovery is unlikely to occur this or year or even in 2021.
Unfortunately, the spread of COVID-19 is evolving in the region and its key visitor source markets in different ways and over dissimilar time scales, implying that finding a viable basis for the full return of air and sea lift to the region will likely be complicated and slow until a vaccine is found. To make matters worse, economic uncertainty now faces many mid-market travellers in North America and Europe.