(Trinidad Express) After weeks of seeing a steady increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, Trinidad and Tobago is reporting a 35 per cent drop in numbers.
This according to the Minister of Health, Terrance Deyalsingh who spoke at a virtual COVID-19 conference on Saturday morning. The Minister thanked the population for its compliance with measures that produced the estimated drop.
“I am reasonably happy this morning that we have some numbers which indicate that we are on the start of a right trend downwards with the numbers. Dr Hinds will go into the detail but there seems to be at this time at least a 35 per cent decrease in numbers which is good I think all citizens of Trinidad and Tobago because this is your accomplishment. We could not have achieved this downturn in numbers which we hope will become a permanent trend without members of the public in both islands wearing their masks social distancing. Washing their hands and staying home if ill,” he said.
However, he maintained that the virus continues to grow globally, having surpassed one million deaths over the past week. Despite this, he said the country has seen some positive signs with this decrease and so he called for continued adherence to the public health measures.
This as the Ministry reported two more Covid deaths overnight, taking the total number of cases to 78.
“The pandemic is showing no signs of a global slow down. There are 34. 788,605 cases globally. The daily average of 300,000 cases per day has remained constant since August 19 to September 30. Those numbers are up until September 30. The number of deaths has regrettably crossed the millionth mark. It has reached 1,320,163. And the daily death toll from August 9 to September 30 still hovers above 5000 a day with no signs of decreasing. We are starting to see some positive signs and we want this to continue as we report to you on a daily basis but as you will start to see from today is a weekly review. So, this drop in cases is to be congratulated to all members of the public who worked with us,” said Deyalsingh.
Also speaking at the conference, epidemiologist Dr Avery Hinds addressed the decrease which he presented though a graph of the epidemiologic curve. The graph showed a drop in numbers based on the number of positive samples collected on a daily basis. Dr Hinds noted that the trend line of the epidemic had begun to move downwards, a trend he hoped would continue in this direction.
“What we do see on the epidemiologic curve is the continuing trend in a downward direction when you look at the number of samples testing positive grouped by the date on which the samples were collected. So the black line that you see moving behind the colored bars are what we call a trend line and looks at the average number of cases over a pre-existing period, approximately seven days. We see that downward trend continues and we are hoping that the behaviours we encourage continue so that the downwards trend in numbers of infection can follow suit.”
He also presented a second graph which depicted the same information on a weekly scale. The difference in weeks were notable with the past week showing the 35 per cent decrease.
“We have an additional slide and this shows the total number of cases that reported aggregated on a weekly basis and the importance of this is showing the same trend line and the same shape of the trend where initially we would have risen to a peak and at the last couple of weeks because this is a week by week graph we have seen a week by week decrease of approximately 35 per cent between the week before last and now and this week. We are hoping that trend continues,” he said.
He added that the epidemiologic curve presented is a representative of how instructions have corresponded with behaviour. Noting a disregard for instructions to distance and limit gathering ins early August, we said the expected outcome of increased numbers followed.
“The epi-curve shows a relationship between behaviours and outcomes. We have described this relationship in the various press conferences, the pressing concerns caused by the number of movement that occurred after the restrictions has been put in place after advice had been issued to reduce the number of gatherings, to reduce social distancing and after observing that none of those behaviours had been adhered to especially in the first part of August. After that what we saw in the epi-curve is basically what was expected and projected when we explained that we will; see an increase in the number of cases as a result behaviours that were demonstrated,” he said.