Beyond the post COVID-19 recovery process which Latin America and the Caribbean will have to endure, countries in the hemisphere will also have to deal with what a United Nations study completed in July says will be “the worst recession in the region in a century that is likely to trigger a 9.1% contraction in regional GDP this year.”
The study, titled ”The Impact of COVID-19 on Latin America and the Caribbean” says that the impact of COVID-19 in parts of the hemisphere had been exacerbated by “weak social protection, fragmented health systems and profound inequalities,” assertions that appear to pin at least some of the blame for the prevailing socio-economic conditions facing countries, on internal instability.
The impact of the recession, the UN study says, could increase the number of poor by 45 million to a total of 230 million, and the number of extremely poor by 28 million to 96 million. All of these, the study says, will become further vulnerable to “undernutrition”, in a region that has suffered its own fair share of political crises, increasing inequalities, exclusion and discrimination in the context of COVID-19, and deficiencies in their enjoyment of human rights and democratic developments.
Such circumstances, the report says, can lead to further civil unrest if left unaddressed. The UN report says that even prior to the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic the region’s development model was already facing “severe structural limitations,” characterized by “high inequality, balance of payments constraints, and exports concentrated in lower technology sectors resulting in recurrent exchange rate and debt crises, low growth, high informality and poverty, vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters and loss of biodiversity.”
Accordingly, the UN contends that recovery from the pandemic “should be an occasion to transform the development model of Latin America and the Caribbean while strengthening democracy, safeguarding human rights and sustaining peace, in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.”
And the report also informs that the costs of inequality in the region have arrived at a point of being untenable and the institutional response should be marked by initiatives aimed at “rebalancing the role of states, markets and civil society, emphasis on transparency, greater accountability and inclusiveness to support democracy, strengthening the rule of law, and protecting and promoting human rights. The root causes of inequality, political instability and displacement need to be addressed,” the report adds. The report says, meanwhile, that the key to successful control of the COVID-19 pandemic and for sustainable development and economic recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean reposes in a governance regime that “helps to sustain income and aggregate demand,” adding that the focus on social inclusion “counteracts the rise of xenophobia and stigmatization of marginalized groups.”
The active contribution of youth, it says, needs to be recognized, “supported and leveraged.”
