It would be a rash person who would take on the role of Cassandra and predict what might happen in this country in the coming year. Even as it applies on the world stage, professional seers are hesitant to pronounce on what we can expect in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Our leaders, however, have never been afflicted by uncertainties about what tomorrow will bring, and it seems that still obtains. They regard themselves as equipped to address any situation.
In terms of external conditions, they behave as if they are not too bothered about the economic consequences of Covid-19, perhaps because they are wedded to the view that oil will save us. This is despite the fact that ExxonMobil lost half its market value this year and there is pressure on the company to change its strategy. The European oil companies are seeking to make some adjustments for a more climate sensitive era, but the American giant is still betting on its traditional business. While it is assumed that the pandemic will be brought under control in the course of 2021, and the demand for gas and jet fuel will consequently increase, no one really knows by how much or how long that will take.
But economics and pandemics aside, those who govern us already have a template for how they should operate and an explanation for everything that happens on the political and associated fronts. That template was crafted half a century ago, and was given reinforcement during five months of this year. It is underpinned by the assumption that democracy is only about winning elections, not about autonomous institutions or an independent judiciary, or the rule of law. The space outside the strictly political demesne has to be controlled, according to this assumption, not allowed freedom to function without inhibition.
The PPP and PNC define themselves in relation to the other. Therefore, deep within the psyche of the ruling party is the absolute conviction that the PNC will always rig, or at least try and rig elections, because that is the party’s raison d’être. While the PNC was inching out of its old habits from 1992 onwards, and by 2015 appeared to have changed course, Mr David Granger then put it into reverse, thereby confirming one of the basic Freedom House premises. As such, however, re-instituting what went before is now the mantra of the main opposition as well. It has yet to move out from under the umbrella of its past, made infinitely more difficult by its recent actions. There are many things it will have to do to reinvent itself, and whether there are those at its core who are even capable of initiating that process next year is very much in doubt.
And as for the PPP, there is little evidence from the months it has been in office that it will not operate next year in the way in which it has always done, and on the basis of the same propositions. As in the case of the PNC, declarations are the opposite of what is known or intended. It would be a gift to the citizenry in 2021 if all our politicians adopted a resolution to stop the pretence, such as the Coalition’s insistence that it won the March 2 election.
On the other side of the aisle there is President Irfaan Ali talking heart-warmingly about inclusion, but then his government fires the most qualified man ever to head the EPA on the grounds of politics. He talks animatedly about unity, but then he refuses to accept an invitation from the ERC to a symposium on race relations because, among other reasons cited below, it made no statements during the five-months’ poll crisis. What exposed him was the fact that the commission had made two statements during that time, even although strictly speaking, as we pointed out in last Monday’s editorial, that was not its function.
Then he promised that all steps would be taken to ensure that the three West Coast Berbice murders would be solved, but after the police reached an impasse his government refused to bring in an Argentine specialist team to assist. Two of the underlying reasons for this are undoubtedly the same as those which prevented him from attending the ERC symposium.
The GHRA was appealing to the public to help defray half of the around $7 million cost for bringing the team here, and although one of its members came to the country to assess what help they could give, the police have not been allowed to give him copies of critical documents.
The only reason given by the administration had come much earlier from Minister Robeson Benn, who said the Argentinians were not an agency Guyana had traditionally associated with for this kind of assistance. This is all codswallop of course. This is a case of the government not being prepared to share the space in this hiring matter with an outside group, thereby ceding a part of its control, and in any case, it regards the GHRA with considerable antipathy from days gone by. So much for an inclusive approach. It should be said that the main reason for the President not attending the ERC conference was that the government had not been consulted on the agenda. Control again. Then too mention had been made of participants who had played a role in the five months’ crisis. Non-inclusion again.
Both the government and opposition have declared themselves in favour of electoral and constitutional reform, but what has been listed by the AG in relation to the former are merely technical matters, such as how to prevent a recurrence of the infamous five months’ episode. There was nothing structural there, and given the ruling party’s record of the past four months which has gone according to template, it is difficult to see it proposing anything radical which even nibbles at its power and control. Following his meeting with former PPP/C presidents, the current head of state did say that all such reform should be people driven, but what that means in practice, and whether it is just another of our political pretences remains to be seen.
Christmas Eve brought a strange editorial from the state newspaper captioned ‘Responsible Media’ which seemed to be suggesting some form of state control of the media. Surely not. “[T]here is a grave situation at hand, and it is imperative that the relevant arms of the State take notice of this anomaly. In a democracy where freedom flourishes, there is a fine line dividing anarchy and chaos, from order and good governance,” ran the leader. It went on to say, “that cacophony of voices shouting and screaming and debating in the national media cannot disrupt and disturb and destroy public order and the smooth running of society. It is the State’s role to maintain this fine balance.”
One presumes that these statements, as well as more concerning ones represented the excess enthusiasm of the author, rather than any kind of official policy emanating from the Presidential Secretariat. If, however, it is indeed a case of testing the waters, then it would be rather unnerving, since it would be revealing about the kind of government we can expect in 2021, this time with no pretence involved.
Despite the fact the government might feel it can proceed along the lines it has always done, one cannot help but feel there is a different public mood in the air. Perhaps it won’t have much effect as yet, but in a world of turmoil nothing will stay static forever, even in Guyana. The ruling party should ensure it is not out of touch with that mood, as opposed to the one it encounters in its own constituency, because if it is, sooner or later it will find the template hard to apply.
As it is we all wait for the traditional presidential address in five days’ time which perhaps once more will promise unity and inclusion for 2021. But generalities shorn of undertakings on very specific issues will not have much meaning. Everyone will assume it is just the usual pretence.