Like so many facets of life in so many places around the world, the agriculture and manufacturing sectors in Jamaica have the COVID-19 pandemic to thank for cutting short and, in fact, overturning the promising growth spurt with which they started 2020.The year began with both the farming and manufacturing sectors recording growth of 7.8 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively. Beginning in the first quarter of January and up to March, signs were beginning to appear that the country was on track for a better performance than two previous years. By the second quarter, however, farming was down 8.5 per cent and manufacturing saw a sizeable 8.7 per cent downturn.
No doubt, at the start of the year, farmers and others involved in agriculture had eyes on the usual suspects as possible impediments to growth during the year: lack of irrigation infrastructure and reliable water supplies; adverse weather conditions – too dry, too wet or too windy; praedial larceny; and bad roads to get produce to market. Manufacturers would have been wondering how they would overcome labour-productivity issues, plant downtime and the perennial difficulties accessing cheap capital even in a low interest rate environment.
By March, the story across these and other sectors was all about the dreadful economic impact of changes to society brought on by the coronavirus that ‘took the world by storm’.
The pain points, as Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica, PIOJ, Dr Wayne Henry, said weeks after Jamaica confirmed its first case of COVID-19, would come from measures implemented to restrict the spread of the disease, including the closure of the country’s borders to passenger movement, the imposition of curfews, physical-distancing measures, and the anticipated downturn in trade due to a contraction in the global economy as supply chains were disrupted.
Agriculture’s second-quarter decline of near eight per cent was worsened by the double whammy of drought conditions and COVID-induced demand fall-offs. Large quantities of fresh produce originally destined for the hotels, one of the sector’s major customers, suddenly had no market as incoming flights and cruise lines were banned in a bid to control the spread of the virus. Restaurants, also big farm produce buyers, for a while, were stung by an absence of diners, before some pivoted to deliveries in an attempt to claw back at least some – though reduced – sales.
At the end of the June quarter, lower output was recorded for seven of the nine crop groups, including legumes, yams, and vegetables. Lower output levels were also recorded for traditional export crops, but the heaviest impact was on sugar output, which fell 20.3 per cent from Seprod’s shuttering of the Golden Grove operations in St Thomas, the result of some 10 years of financial losses amounting to some $5 billion.
Coffee output also fell 40.9 per cent during the quarter, while cocoa was down 43.7 per cent and banana down 6.9 per cent. The result was an overall 11.9 per cent decline in export crops and estimated $1 billion in government spending to plug losses to farmers from the fallout.
As it was with agriculture, so followed manufacturing, which contracted by an estimated 11 per cent in the second quarter, according to Statin, reflecting a downturn in both the food, beverages and tobacco and other manufacturing components. Lower petroleum production was also recorded for all types of fuels.
At the end of the three months to September, Jamaica’s agriculture had started to rebound, growing 2.5 per cent. The performance was driven by higher output of fruits, up 28.3 per cent; condiments, which rose 22.3 per cent; other tubers, which improved 21.3 per cent; cereals, up 17.2 per cent; and vegetables, which saw a 15.3 per cent increase. In the quarter, however, lower output was recorded for traditional export crops. Animal farming also declined with lower broiler meat production, although egg production grew by 24.6 per cent.
The slow rebound in agriculture had benefited from some relaxation of COVID-19 measures, and the green shoots were not deep or widespread enough to extend to manufacturing, where output again fell by an estimated 11 per cent to September, according to Statin. Poultry meat, animal feed, dairy products, edible fats, rum and alcohol, and carbonated beverages production remained down compared to output in the corresponding quarter of 2019.
With the early quarter improvements and later quarters declines factored in, overall, the agriculture sector was estimated to have grown by a mere 0.3 per cent over the period January to September, while the manufacturing sector improved 6.1 per cent during the nine months.
There were several attempts to cauterise the impact on farmers during the year.
A temporary ban on imported chicken meat in April was aimed at stimulating sales for local chicken farmers, but a slowdown in production of both baby chicks as well as chicken parts from the country’s largest poultry providers created a scarcity.
The Government, through the industry, commerce, agriculture and fisheries ministry, spearheaded a ‘buy-back’ programme to assist in the movement of excess produce from farmers to consumers. An amount of $240 million was made available for the programme.
Better weather conditions during July to September helped agriculture as farmers were also given state support with the provision of fertiliser and seedlings. This was short-lived, however, as heavy rains battered the island during the months of October and November, causing farm sector losses estimated at $2 billion, as more than 11,000 farmers are believed to have lost a combined 14,076 hectares of crops and another 755 farmers lost livestock.
