With close to 2.4 million people dead from Covid-19 and more than 100 million infected, the end of the pandemic remains a distant prospect in many countries, even those with sufficient supplies of vaccines. Nevertheless it is clear that certain countries have done a much better job of containing the virus; in some cases by a degree of magnitude. Consider, for instance, the United States and Japan. The US has a population 2.6 times greater than Japan but has lost almost 100 times as many citizens – 500,000 compared to 5,000. Mexico, which has a similar population to Japan, has lost 150,000 citizens; Canada, which has 30 percent of Japan’s population, has lost 21,000.
Setting aside inevitable variations in climate, relative wealth, hospital facilities and governance, the ability to implement effective containment measures appears to be related to a society’s willingness to follow social norms. A study published in The Lancet, finds “strict adherence to social norms is a key mechanism that enables groups” to limit the number of cases and deaths. In general terms, the study distinguishes between “loose” countries – which embrace rule-breaking and have greater protections for individual freedoms – and “tight” cultures. Loose countries are often diverse, democratic and innovative; tight ones more conservative and traditional. Writing in the Guardian, the professor who led the study notes that “Research in both nation-states and small-scale societies has shown that communities with histories of chronic threat – whether natural disasters, infectious diseases, famines or invasions – develop stricter rules that ensure order and cohesion.” Crucially,, she adds: “Neither type is better or worse – until a global pandemic hits.”
During a pandemic, rule-breaking can cost lives. Using data from the UK firm YouGov, the researchers found that that “people in loose cultures had far less fear of the Covid19 virus throughout 2020, even as cases skyrocketed.” By contrast those in tight nations were scared throughout (70 percent vs 49 percent). This discrepancy helps to explain the fact that although the United States contains a twentieth of the world’s population, it has produced one quarter of the total cases.
Another study in the Lancet makes an even more damning picture of how much a sceptical government can affect the outcomes in any given country. The Lancet argues that if the Trump administration’s policies had been more attuned to those of other G7 nations the current death toll could have been 40 percent less.
“Instead of galvanizing the U.S. populace to fight the pandemic,” notes the Lancet, “President Trump publicly dismissed its threat (despite privately acknowledging it), discouraged action as infection spread, and eschewed international cooperation.” After withdrawing from the WHO and refusing to set out a coherent national strategy, “President Trump politicized mask-wearing and school reopenings and convened indoor events attended by thousands, where masks were discouraged and physical distancing was impossible.” The US is far from the only country to suffer such an abdication of leadership. Cavalier governance in Brazil, India, Turkey and the UK has produced similar outcomes.
Covid cases and deaths are still rising throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. The most recent WHO statistics show Venezuela with around 131,000 confirmed cases and more than 1,200 deaths; Brazil with nearly 10 million confirmed cases, and 235,000 deaths; Surinam with around 9,000 confirmed cases and 160 deaths. As the entire world races towards vaccinating its citizens faster than Covid mutations can infect them, good governance, rule-following and coherent strategies and communication will remain more important than ever.
