Like in the 2020 Budget, the impact of the COVID – 19 Pandemic featured highly in the 2021 Budget. The new Government has settled in and has formulated, in its own way, a national response including the equipping of an infectious disease hospital inherited from its predecessor.
Guyana, like countries around the world responded in varying ways, influenced by their financial resources and the policies of their governments. In the period since the last Budget the Government has been paying out $25,000 per household and costing, according to a release from the Government some $5.921 billion at the date of the Budget. We are not aware of any impact study of the COVID – 19, nor has any report been published of how the Pandemic affected the lower income families and the tens of thousands of families in Region 4 who are yet to receive their COVID – 19 relief. While there have been criticisms of certain features of the Government’s COVID Relief measures such as the absence of targeting and the restriction of the sum to a single household, the Government also helped in preventing additional hardship by continuing to pay public sector employees their full remuneration.
This was matched by some private sector employers who in a large measure continued to pay their employees. Unfortunately, the unskilled and lower income employees were not so lucky. A sales assistant, labourer, or fast-food employee cannot work from home and probably lost some significant share of their income and struggle to meet their needs, including paying their rents. Like with the economic impact, there has not been any assessment of the impact on the health and welfare of the lower income and the economic class in which the over eight thousand cases of COVID – 19 which Guyana has recorded.
How long the Pandemic will last is uncertain and Guyana can count itself lucky that it does seem to have escaped the really harsh effect as some other countries and places such as neighbouring Brazil and the United States. And that is despite the fact that we have not enforced the mitigation measures as strictly as we should. Yet the economic impact cannot be overstated. The closing of the borders dramatically halted the operations of entities in the hospitality sector and caused the closing of doors of houses of worship, schools and businesses. The 7.3% decline in the non-oil economy is testimony to the pandemic’s impact. Even the best of studies however will not provide a particularly accurate assessment of the impact on the economy as a whole and in any case, it is doubtful whether any of our academics or economists will take on this task.
The danger and consequently the impact is not over and will probably last for the better part of 2021. How will Guyana remember COVID – 19 and what will be its longer-term effect? On the economy, on health, on welfare of the people, and on education? Studies from abroad show that the scarring effects of the shocks to the economy are usually short-lived as evident from the oil shock of the seventies and the global crisis of 2008. That gives some support to the Minister’s slightly disguised optimism about the economy.
As is almost always the case it is the poor who will mostly have been affected by the pandemic but unfortunately and here again there are no disaggregated statistics of cases and deaths by socio-economic class. In their report ‘The impact of COVID-19 on global poverty under worsening growth and inequality’, the World Bank, citing the Poverty and Shared Prosperity Report 2020 (PSPR2020) highlighted that in 2020, between 88 and 115 million people globally were likely to be pushed into extreme poverty as a result of COVID-19 where households or individuals could only afford to live under US$1.90-a-day the equivalent of GYD$402.
We are not that bad but quite how better is hard to measure and assess. A payment of $25,000 to households would have helped but not by much or for long. To prevent abuse, the new Administration limited the payment to households as if many families living in the same house is a matter of choice. If it were, we would not have the number of house lot applications which the Housing Ministry has to contend with.
As a new disease there is no evidence to measure the long-term impact on health although international scientists have found no severe damage and the evidence is that with few exceptions, recovery is complete. Perhaps the most significant scar is on education with poorer children not having the same opportunities and resources to access online education. Depending on the level of the student in school, the consequences of being out of school and education for a mere few months could damage one’s learning for life.
It is unclear how the Ministry of Education proposes dealing with this.
On the plus side, there have been many lessons: how we do business, shop, entertain, and work. The world will have changed as a result of the pandemic. We need to learn from and adopt the lessons and to mitigate the dangers.
