Using downward adjusted 2020 growth rates as proxy measure of adverse economic impacts

By Dr Clive Thomas On In Guyana and the Wider World |

Introduction

Table 1 shows various estimated GDP growth rates data for Guyana in 2020. I had referenced these last week as proxies for the adverse impacts of the 2020 general crisis on Guyana’s infant oil and  gas sector. The starting point is the joint IMF/ Government of Guyana (Authorities) projection of  an 85.6 growth rate for2020, announced during Q4 2019. At that time, this was the fastest projected rate 2020 growth rate of real GDP, worldwide. The table indicates the IMF has made three subsequent reductions to this estimate; one each in Q2, Q3, and Q4, 2020. The rate fell to 52.8 percent, 26.2 percent, and finally to 8.1 percent respectively.