All things being equal, the Caribbean could find itself on the way to recovery from the ravages of the coronavirus pandemic, though World Bank Vice President for Latin America and the Caribbean, Felipe Jaramillo, is concerned that another spike in infections could spell disaster for the region, particularly given what is now widely believed to be a number of variants that are now part of the equation.
The World Bank top official’s disclosure was reported in Kingston earlier this week at the end of his recent three-day visit to Jamaica.
Based on current circumstances, Jaramillo reportedly pointed to a revised World Bank forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean pointing to growth in 2021 reaching 5.2 per cent, up from the 3.8 per cent projected for the region’s economy when the original forecast was made back in January. “What I can tell you with some certainty is that we started the year with fairly low growth projections for most of the region, thinking that the crisis will last longer and have a longer impact,” Jaramillo is quoted as saying in last week’s Observer interview.
On the upside Jaramillo stated in an interview with the Jamaica Observer that “in the last three or four months,” economic activity has been picking up as countries reopen after undergoing various levels of lockdown to contain the pandemic.
“In Jamaica and many other countries in the region, [we are seeing] a certain level of normalization of economic activity. We see tourism gradually recovering, we see tax revenues increasing, we see people getting back to work gradually. At the rate we are going, in the next three months, we may have to do yet another upward revision,” he added.
That prognosis, however, does not gainsay the World Bank official’s pointed caution that uncertainties, primarily the impact of Covid-19-induced lockdowns and the possibility of a third wave of infections as countries continue to open could upend the prevailing forecast. Accordingly, Jaramillo is cautioning that governments in the region boost vaccination programmes in order not to retard the move towards a condition of normalcy. “Vaccines are protecting people and it’s very hard to have a fully sustained recovery until the majority of the population is vaccinated,” Jaramillo told the Observer.
Globally, according to Jaramillo, the World Bank is looking to the United States and China to play major roles in pulling the global economy around. “The US is in the process of passing a very large stimulus package, meaning the US is stimulating its own economy and imports into the US. This will have a spillover effect into the region. It will also stimulate tourism. And, then, at the same time, China is recovering. It is a big buyer of agricultural goods, mining goods and other things and so global trade is picking up in a big way,” the World Bank official asserted.
