The Ministry of Finance’s Mid-Year Report for 2021 says that Guyana recorded real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 14.5 percent while non-oil GDP grew by 4.8 percent, despite the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic and floods experienced in May-June.
Due to the floods and the pandemic, a release yesterday from the Ministry of Finance said that the revised full-year forecast for real GDP growth in 2021 is now 19.5 percent overall and 3.7 percent for the non-oil economy.
With regard to sector performance, the agriculture, forestry and fishing industries for the first half of 2021 are estimated to have contracted by 2.4 percent compared with a decline of 4.1 percent for the corresponding period last year.
“At the end of the first half of the year, the Guyana Sugar Corporation (GUYSUCO) produced 29,650 tonnes of sugar. This performance reflects the record high levels of rainfall, which resulted in waterlogged soils, particularly at the Albion Estate, and strike action that resulted in over 5,600 man-days being lost,” the Mid-Year Report said, according to the release. The sugar industry declined by 22.4 percent when compared to the same period in 2020. Some of the reasons cited were a 30 percent mortality of mature cane at Albion estate, 10 percent at Uitvlugt and 5 percent at Blairmont due to the floods. Another 15,000 tonnes of sugar in the second crop are also expected to be lost.
According to the release, the Report said that the rice industry grew by an estimated 7.8 percent in the first half of the year, marginally lower than the target set for the period. ‘Other crops’ declined by 7.3 percent due to the floods and the livestock industry was estimated to have grown by 10.6 percent when compared to the same period in 2020. However, for that same period, the fishing industry shrunk by an estimated 6.6 percent and the forestry industry by 7.1 percent.
The Report said that in the first half of 2021 the mining and quarrying industries were estimated to have grown by 23.1 percent, with higher output from the petroleum and other industries despite contractions in gold and bauxite.
According to the release, it was noted in the report that total output from the petroleum sector rose sharply by 65.4 percent when compared to the same period last year. In relation to diamond, sand and stone, these were estimated to have seen a total growth of 63.3 percent, the release said.
With regard to manufacturing, the release said that this sector saw an estimated growth of 13.1 percent when compared to the same period last year.
The Report, the release added, also noted the strong performance of the construction sector which grew by 25.5 percent in the first half of 2021, reflecting increased emphasis on implementing the public sector investment programme as well as increased private sector construction.
At the end of the first half of 2021, consumer prices grew by 5.6 percent, the release said.
“This was largely driven by increased food prices, as a result of the inclement weather and shortages experienced following the flood. Further, the Report indicated that the bottlenecks in the global supply chain adds some measure of imported inflationary pressures. However, the Report underscores, that the price increases are ‘transitory’ and are unlikely to have lasting long-term impact on inflation”.
Inflation is now projected to be in the order of 3.8 percent for the full year, the release stated.
