Afghanistan’s future economic direction may mirror Guyana’s

Dear Editor,

Much has been written publicly and broadcast internationally about the decades of foreign military interventions and debacles in Afghanistan ending with the Saigon-style departure by US forces from Kabul following the swift assumption to power by the Taliban. Afghanistan, for decades it has been a pawn to big powers’ self-interests. However, speculation is rife about the economic direction the Taliban would pursue. The sum total of the Taliban’s world view is likely to be modernized in light of the changed international situation since the last time Taliban was in government. Even the Taliban’s traditionalist view in respect to the role and place of women and girls in Afghan society is likely to undergo changes. The international donor community has already put the Taliban on notice in this particular matter. Afghanistan’s national territory comprises of 652,860 sq. kilometers. Almost six times the size of Guyana. The country has a population of 38.4 million while Guyana has less than a million people. Ethnicity, caste, tribal and class distinctions play a big role in Afghanistan’s body politic.

By 2019, Afghanistan received $4.2 bln in foreign aid accounting for 76% of GDP. Where Guyana was in the 1980-1990 period as one of the poorest countries in the Southern Hemisphere, is where Afghanistan is presently in 2021. Afghanistan remains among the poorest countries in the world notwithstanding the billions poured into the country for a prolonged period of time and for a variety of reasons. Gripped by an economic and financial crisis, the situation is further compounded by the freezing of US$1.2 bln including €100 million in promised aid by the donor community and international financial institutions. Worse yet, the IMF suspended Afghanistan’s access to the bank’s resources. 80% of Afghanistan’s previous $5.5 bln budget was financed by external assistance. The Taliban has already declared it will reject aid with strings attached. While Guyana never experienced a similar situation, in the run-up to the 1990 election, eight US Congressmen and six senators wrote separate letters to the State Department requesting that US aid be tied to free and fair elections. Like Guyana in the 1974-1976 period, Afghanistan had a brief episode in the search for a political solution between 2014 and 2017. The aim was to bridge the ethnic-political divide. The attempt failed because of ethnic domination of one group over another and allegations of corruption. Following the 2014 election in Afghanistan, two major political formations representing the Pashtun and non-Pashtun ethnic groups claimed victory. Efforts by the Obama administration to find a political solution to establish a multi-ethnic inclusive government instead of parallel governments collapsed, since the constitution did not provide for a power sharing arrangement.

Attempts at unity government in Afghanistan failed due to claims of ethnic domination and centralization of power and rejection of calls for multi-ethnic inclusivity and decentralization of power to check the untrammeled power of the president. Pledges to initiate constitutional and electoral reform to facilitate a more inclusive government were never fulfilled. With Taliban now in government they have announced their intention to embark on constitutional and electoral reform which they claims will facilitate an inclusive government. Over the years Guyanese have been engaging in discussion concerning constitutional and electoral reform. Some feel that we must move away from the PR electoral system and revert to First Past the Post. The debate continues.

Sincerely,

Clement J. Rohee