Dear Editor,
Guyana is experiencing a surge in infections that some are attributing to Omicron. If this is indeed an Omicron surge it is different from the previous Delta surge in one very important way other than exponentially high infection numbers. The graphs below make this very clear.
First, the surge is real. The positivity rate is now at 9.52% and rising. Two weeks earlier it was at 9.37% and falling. The first uptick is seen at 12/31 and continued until 01/03 when it took a slight dip — most likely because of low testing numbers as the holidays kicked into high gear. It is also recognized that data released on Mondays tend to be the lowest of the week most likely due to low testing on Sundays. Indeed, this seems to be the case. But it is obvious that the infections exploded after that low point and a commendable ramping up of testing. The result: an increase in active cases. Now this is where Omicron so far seems to be different from the lethal Delta: Even though infections and active cases are high, the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) declined. The Case Fatality Rate is crudely referred to at times as the Mortality Rate. So, even though infections increased there was no corresponding increase in deaths. And, this point is driven home even more clearly below:
January 2022’s 0.37% CFR is an all-time low. This figure will undoubtedly rise but it is noteworthy that it is so low at this point. Last January’s 1% is easily explained: low testing. The following graphs show January’s 2022 low CFR is no mirage:
Even though there are less tests than January 2021, there are more infections this January. Thirteen persons died in January of 2021 and six have so far this year. Looking at the graph it is clear then that half as many persons have died compared to last January even though there are more infections this January than January 2021. Omicron may be more infectious but it is not as deadly as Delta. At least so suggests the very early data. Some caveats. Until sequencing is done the cause of January’s deaths will remain unknown: Delta or Omicron? It’s quite possible that all of the deaths so far this year are from Delta and not Omicron. Again, sequencing (and/or really good record keeping) will provide a definitive answer. January 2022 deaths will most likely surpass January 2021 numerically but it will be informative to learn which variant dominated and then look at the CFR for each (provided that sequencing is also done on confirmed cases as well).
Sincerely,
Ellis Dee
