Highlights
In this section, we set out the key takeaways from the Minister’s review of the economy in 2021 and the policies, targets and projections for 2022.
2021 Performance
● Overall Growth in Real GDP of 19.9% compared with an initial target of 20.9%. The non-oil economy is estimated to have grown by 4.6 % compared with a projection of 6.1%.
● Inflation of 5.7% compared with an initial target of 1.6%.
● The Central Bank rate of the Guyana Dollar to the US Dollar at December 31, 2021 was $208.5, the same as at December 31, 2020.
● Current revenue of $266.2 billion compared with $227.4 billion in 2020, an increase of 16.8%. Current expenditure of $283 billion and non-interest current expenditure of $275 billion. These represented an increase of 13.4% and 13.8% respectively over 2021.
● Capital expenditure of $104.4 billion compared with budget of $103.2 billion.
● Overall fiscal deficit of $133.4 billion compared with $102.6 billion in 2020.
● Overall balance of payments surplus of US$130.2 million, 24.4% higher than the surplus in 2020.
● Merchandise exports of US$4,352 million during 2021 and Merchandise imports of US$4,293.1 million in 2021.
● Current account deficit of US$ $1,533.1 million, compared with a deficit of US$ 822.9 million in 2020.
● A surplus of US$1,678.5 million in the capital account compared with a surplus of US$919.9 million in 2020.
● Gross external reserves of Bank of Guyana at the end of 2021 of US$810.8 million, an increase from US$680.6 million at the end of 2020.
2022 Targets Revised Expenditure in 2021: $404.9 Bn.
● Real GDP is expected to grow by 47.5% with the non-oil economy growing by 7.7%.
● Inflation is projected at 4.1%.
● Current revenue of $432 billion, an increase of 62.3%. Current expenditure of $302.2 billion, an increase of 9.9%.
● Capital expenditure of $217.8 billion.
● Overall fiscal deficit of $110.683 billion.
● Balance of Payment is expected to register a surplus of US$403.4 million.
● Merchandise exports to increase by 44.2% or US$7,792.8 million while imports are expected to move from a deficit of US$4,293.1 million to US$2,957.1.
Ram & McRae’s Comments:
● Growth projections are a function of the international, unpredictable price of oil, as well as increased production.
● Both the inflation rate and the real GDP growth in 2021 turned out to be over- optimistic. We believe that the inflation rate in 2022 is likely to be higher with more money chasing less goods. The non-oil GDP will be heavily dependent on significant growth in primary agriculture, manufacturing of agriculture products, bauxite and construction.
● Guyana is already becoming heavily dependent on Oil as the non-oil sector underperforms.
By convention, balance of payment figures are always quoted.
Size of the Budget: $552.9Bn, 44.3% increase