There was no other Security Council meeting like it. While the members with Russia in the chair met in emergency session to try and avert an invasion of Ukraine, they began to receive messages on their mobile phones that Vladimir Putin had ordered exactly that. Secretary General Guterres was the first to speak, before the news about the Russian President’s decision had filtered through. “If indeed an operation is being prepared,” he said, “I have only one thing to say, from the bottom of my heart: President Putin − stop your troops from attacking Ukraine. Give peace a chance …”
Although he did not know it at the time, it was already too late to give peace a chance, and had probably been too late since earlier last year, when the military build-up heralding the coming crisis began its slow-motion progression towards yesterday’s denouement. Mr Putin had already decided on his strategy a long time ago, as is now clear, and he had calculated that any economic sanctions which the West might impose could probably be withstood; after all, Russia had been under sanctions since the invasion of Crimea in 2014.
Russia has built up currency reserves of US$635 billion, which would provide a cushion against financial pressure, and while the country’s supplies of oil and gas to Europe have declined, those to China have increased considerably. It is Europe which is dependent on Russia for 40% of its gas supplies and which would really feel the pain consequent on sanctions by way of dramatically inflated prices. Moscow would have problems were it to be excluded from the SWIFT banking system, as President Biden has threatened, although some sources in Russia feel that in that instance it would set up some alternative arrangement in cooperation with China. However, western experts doubt the viability of such a project.
After Messrs Putin and Xi Jinping’s joint statement three weeks ago, Moscow probably feels confident it will have Chinese support. How far that will extend in practical terms remains to be seen, since although Beijing wants to see Nato and the West undermined, it may not be as enthusiastic about the disruptions in the global economy which will follow.
Perhaps the country which arguably has the power to inflict some of the more serious damage on Mr Putin’s regime, albeit indirectly, is the UK, and that is because unlike the United States and most European countries it has served as a laundromat for dirty Russian money for years. The oligarchs who help sustain the Russian President use London as a “bolthole”, as one UK politician described it, and if their access and that of their families to their money and property in Britain were to be frozen, they would not be happy. The theory is, therefore, that if they are bearing the brunt of sanctions, they might rethink their support for their current boss.
Initial sanctions on three oligarchs and five banks were announced in the UK a few days ago, along with some measures by the US, and more significantly the suspension of the Nordstream 2 pipeline by Germany. With the exception of the last-named, these were little more than sandfly bites on a pachydermous Russian skin.
However, yesterday afternoon Britain’s Prime Minister announced infinitely more far-reaching sanctions, although agreement on SWIFT still has to be reached with other western partners, and where that is concerned the prognostications are not necessarily good. For its part the UK among other things will be freezing the assets of major Russian banks, limiting the cash held by Russian nationals in UK banks and sanctioning more than 100 individuals and entities. Legislation to facilitate some of the measures is to be introduced shortly.
The question arises as to what exactly in territorial terms is President Putin seeking in Ukraine. In his sinister address just before dawn to the nation yesterday, he told the Russian people that the plans did not include “the occupation of Ukrainian territories.” He went on to say, “We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force.” This must represent the ultimate in cynicism. He talked a lot of nonsense about the “de-militarisation and de-nazification” of Ukraine – it might be noted that President Zelensky is Jewish – and that Russia had to act because of genocide in the Donbas region, Nato training facilities which were really military bases and Ukraine’s intention to develop nuclear weapons. Exactly where he is going to find these Nato bases and so on, is a mystery; his troops have gone for attacking air bases and the Kyiv Intelligence HQ and the like. Clearly that just has the goal of degrading Ukraine’s military capacity to resist invasion.
Britain has said that Russia’s spy agency has been tasked with delivering Kyiv and Ukraine’s other major cities, while the US has claimed that Russian officials have drawn up lists of Ukrainians who must be rounded up in areas where its military is in control. It all has a very Stalinesque feel about it.
Some commentators have said they thought Russia would invade on “multiple axes of attack”, but that the main focus would be the capital, Kyiv with the aim of regime change there. In this scenario, the Russian military would surround the city and hope to oust President Zelensky without being dragged into urban warfare. To keep a puppet government in control, however, would still require a military occupation at some level.
Last week one strategist hypothesised that President Putin could divide the country and make the independent half ungovernable. As it is, he has more than enough forces for an invasion, but not nearly enough to occupy a country the size of Ukraine. As yet, there is probably not enough information available on Russian troop activity to establish exactly what Mr Putin has in mind as an end game.
And as for anyone “who may be tempted to intervene in the ongoing events,” the Russian President had a few words for them: “Whoever tries to hinder us, or threaten our country or our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences that you have never faced in your history. We are ready for any turn of events. All necessary decisions in this regard have been made. I hope that I will be heard.” At an earlier stage he had referred to Russia as being “one of the most powerful nuclear powers in the world”, and had gone on to say, “no one should have any doubts that a direct attack on our country will lead to defeat and horrible consequences for any potential aggressor.” If this is an implied nuclear threat it is both shameful and horrifying. No one, on either the Russian/Soviet side or in the West has ever hinted at anything of this kind, even during periods when relations were at their worst.
It may be that President Putin thought he could manage a reprise of what he accomplished in the case of Georgia in 2008. A lot of what we have seen in the instance of Ukraine had already been trialled in Georgia. There were the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and there were the familiar forms of attack, such as misinformation, the issuing of Russian passports to citizens, cyber warfare, formal requests for recognition, so-called Russian ‘peacemakers’ in the breakaway regions, etc. What happened in that case, however, was that after attacks by the Ossetians on Georgia, the authorities in Tbilisi decided to move in and deal with them militarily, a mistake which automatically brought in Russian troops.
This time around, the Ukrainians did not rise to the bait when the rebels increased their shelling and other forms of attack recently. Furthermore, for the first time the US and to a lesser extent the UK released secret intelligence on Russian plans relating to ‘false flag’ plots, the invasion and so on. It alerted the world to the Kremlin’s real intentions, despite what Moscow was claiming. In addition there were all the satellite photos of Russian troop movements and dispositions, and these were emanating not just from the spy satellites of western nations, but from private companies which had satellites in space, such as Maxar Technologies.
What has happened will not just affect Europe, but the world, and soon enough all nations will have to take a stance in relation to the invasion at organisations like the UN and the OAS, as well as others. This country will not be exempt. Russia has support from Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba in this hemisphere, and may acquire other backers. Guyana should not be among them. Now is not the time for President Irfaan Ali to invite Cuban President Diaz-Canel to Guyana. Cuba has expressed support for Russia following a visit from the Russian Deputy Prime Minister and has accused the US and its allies of targeting Moscow with sanctions and a “propaganda war”.
Ukraine, an independent nation which has attacked no one has been invaded by an aggressor led by a dictator who claims it is not a real state. It is also a democracy under threat of having its political institutions destroyed – never mind its citizens being killed. This country’s position should be clear: we support international law as it applies in this instance, we support Ukraine’s rights as an independent state, we support its right to territorial integrity, and we support democracy.