“Peace is the virtue of civilization. War is its crime.” – French Romantic poet, novelist, essayist, playwright, and dramatist, Victor Hugo
In its latest report, issued on February 28 this year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN intergovernmental body comprising 95 nations, which is responsible for providing policymakers with scientific assessments on the risks and implications of climate change, doubled down on its previous dire warnings about the effects of the climate crisis. Stating that the world has already gone past some of the tipping points, it highlighted the hardships ahead, particularly for the world’s most vulnerable people who have already been knocked asunder by the COVID-19 global pandemic.
The report also referred to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war being waged there, making a few predictions as regards its effect on the world at large. However, as with any ongoing conflict, prognoses as to ramifications are usually less than shrewd guesses. People zigging when they had been expected to zag could change the course and outcome of any conflict.
What is known for sure is that another war is underway and as has been the case with all other wars, both current and in the past, there will be long-lasting consequences that can also extend geographically. The Russian planes dropping bombs on Ukraine, the tanks being driven into that country, the trucks transporting thousands of Russian soldiers and the firepower being employed are certainly ramping up emissions and that could jeopardise the Glasgow Climate Pact reached in Scotland just last November, for a global net-zero emissions target by 2050.
Meantime, the adverse economic effects that are already being seen will only get worse. For example, with Russia (17.6% worth US$7.9 billion) and Ukraine (8% worth US$3.6 billion) being the number one and number five global exporters of wheat, there are projections of shortages, which will translate into higher prices – the demand and supply equation. While the expectation is that the other top exporters – the US, Canada, France, Australia and Argentina – will increase production to bridge the gap, and that other countries could also plant more, wheat cannot grow overnight; there is bound to be fallout in the interim. That is just one instance. There are other more glaring ones, perhaps the biggest of which is the price at the pump for fuel the world over.
An estimated two million people have now fled Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began. They now have to be added to the almost 30 million people classified as refugees who had left their native countries prior to 2022 owing to persecution, conflict, violence, and human rights violations. It must be mentioned here that the number of displaced or stateless people is closer to 90 million, but they are not all counted as refugees.
One must consider too that the Ukraine exodus is far from over. The country’s population at the end of last year was estimated at 44 million, and as the war continues, many more, fearful for their lives, will exit. There is no time when the contemplation of such a scenario is not mind-boggling, but with COVID-19 variants still in the mix, what awaits just down the road could be truly horrific.
Also at stake, aside from the denouement of the COP26 pact, are the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), one of which is in fact climate action. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development was adopted by all UN member states in 2015, and it followed the Millennium Declaration under which eight Development Goals were set with measurable targets. In both the former and the current endeavours, humanitarian crises were among the difficulties placing the targets and goals out of reach. Invariably, these crises were the result of wars or natural disasters. It stands to reason then that the impact of this conflict, along with everything else, could very well be catastrophic for the SDGs and in the long term, for the planet.
When these things are added to the equation, the vitriol being heaped on the kleptocratic Vladimir Putin does not appear to be nearly enough. He is taking away Russia’s very civilisation and could very well drag the rest of the world along. Negotiating peace is the obvious solution, but for it to work Putin would need to backpedal on his wild demands. One senses that his end goal might not allow for that.
