Guyana, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago are expected to head the regional ‘pack’ this year insofar as economic growth is concerned, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), though it says that the rest of the region is not likely to fare anywhere near as well as these three front-runners.
The IMF is projecting that all three named countries could realise economic growth of at least 6 per cent this year, while adding that the heavily tourism-dependent island states should not anticipate economic growth above 1.4% in 2022.
Predictions from reputable international financial organisations, including both the Fund and the World Bank continue to predict growth rates for Guyana, particularly, significantly higher than the rest of the region on account of the country’s new-found oil wealth. Guyana is now is now in the throes of engaging an ‘armada’ of investors and potential investors s well as preparing to launch ambitious infrastructure development projects in agriculture and other sectors even as ExxonMobil pursues oil recovery from the Stabroek Block and longer-term discoveries and projections continue to give reason for even more returns.
Not only has Guyana’s oil & gas sector now completely erased the ‘banana republic’ tag that had come to be attached to it by the international media, but external investors have for several months now, been queuing up to find their way here to assess the country’s investment prospects in sectors unconnected to the oil & gas industry. Whereas reporting on Guyana had hitherto tagged the country as the ‘sick man’ of the region, other Caribbean Community member countries, notably Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago, have been moving to strengthen both political and economic ties with Guyana.
In the instance of Barbados, Prime Minister Mia Mottley has moved with haste to advance her country’s relations with Guyana, particularly on the economic front. Prime Minister Mottley was one of the standout visitors to Guyana for a high-profile international oil & gas conference held in Georgetown earlier this year.
Meanwhile, agreements on various aspects of bilateral cooperation including an agreement for Barbados to provide training for Guyanese workers in the country’s anticipated hospitality industry has been completed. In the instance of Trinidad and Tobago, the twin-island republic’s experience in the oil & gas industry has opened the way for companies from that country to find their way here.
Outside of the Caribbean, the country has become a popular locale for oil & gas and investment-related international conferences. These have attracted a retinue of oil industry officials, businessmen from as far away as the Middle East, and government officials from across the Caribbean and as far away as Africa. Beyond that, investors from both within and beyond the region are queuing up to develop business partnerships with local companies under Local Content arrangements that promise to transform the fortunes of formerly struggling Guyanese business enterprises.
Whereas less than a decade ago Guyana was being referred to as one of the poorest countries in the region, the oil-driven promised complete turnaround in the country’s economy has meant that, going forward, the rest of the Caribbean is looking to Guyana for leadership in a collective endeavour to help boost the fortunes of the region.
One significant spinoff of the turnaround in Guyana’s fortunes has been indications of a restoration of the position it had held decades ago as a leader in the region. Contextually, the country is again being pushed to the centre of what appears to be yet another regional focus on shoring up food security by swapping the Caribbean’s multi-billion dollar food import burden for a renewed regional agricultural drive which, this time around, will hopefully be attended by both better management and a more robust financial commitment. Here again, Guyana will be expected to lead.
One seeming not unimportant gain from Guyana, arising in large measure from the country’s oil-driven change in economic fortunes has been what appears to be a turnaround in the country’s relations with neighbouring Suriname. A long boundary-related controversy between the two countries arising out of jurisdiction over the Corentyne River now appears to be less of a threat to relations between the two nations given the significant oil-driven prospects for both countries in their respective futures.
Current assessments of the prevailing socio-economic condition in the region seem set to effect a re-shuffling of the pack to place Guyana in ‘pole position’, going forward. Those assessments, however, would be well-advised to note that the returns from the emerging oil & gas industry are yet to have any significant impact on poverty alleviation and jobs. This, despite announcements of a handful of local content deals that will boost the fortunes of some local businesses while impacting as well on job creation and by extension, poverty alleviation.
Some of the less endearing responses to the country’s perceived socio-economic changes have come particularly from the small-business sector where businesses in the small- and medium-scale agriculture and agro-processing sectors have expressed an uneasiness over what they say has been a less than generous attempt on the part of government, up until now, to tackle the decline in the fortunes of these sectors arising out of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, not least of which has been the complete closure of some of these businesses and a decline in the operations of others, too significant to be retrieved without significant support from government. While the government has been sending signals that it is coming around to effecting those responses that will see an injection of resources into the recovery of the large numbers of enterprises in the small- and micro-business sector, some of those that have been affected by the impact of the pandemic have told Stabroek Business that they have seen little evidence of any official attempt to engage them. Here, the complainants include mostly small-scale farmers and agro-processors, many of whom are still nowhere close to recovery from the impact of the pandemic.
To a considerable extent, the perception of change that has been created by the periodicity of ‘good news’ on the oil & gas front, the comings and goings of external investors, and the commencement of infrastructural works linked to the country’s touted transformative direction may have lifted spirits at the national level somewhat, though failure up until now to impact significantly on unemployment and to stabilise the cost of living, not least, continually rising food prices, has dampened down what had been an earlier celebratory mood linked to the country’s successive oil finds. At this juncture it is real and meaningful transformative change rather than periodic modest handouts and promises of better to come that Guyanese are clamouring for.
