Dear Editor,
Since becoming a petroleum producing country, public commentators often reference Guyana as the next Dubai in terms of whether Guyana has what it takes to mirror Dubai’s success as an oil rich country. The question is: how did Dubai, once a mere US$3 billion economy or less, become a US$46 billion economy in fifty years and regarded one of the richest nations in the world. First, let’s reflect on the country’s political system. Dubai is a monarchy where its people have had confidence in this system for more than some 300 years and they continue to this day to have the same level of confidence. As a result, Dubai enjoyed uninterrupted political stability for more than 100 years and it continues to so do within the same political framework. It is important to note that in order for a country to experience rapid development and economic transformation, paramount to achieving this is political stability.
In the case of Guyana, it’s been 50+ years since Guyana became an independent State from British rulership. Almost half of this era (post-independence) Guyana was a ‘centrally command’ State, an era characterized by politically inflicted social and economic stress, leading ultimately to a bankrupt economy. The latter half (post-1985) Guyana transitioned to a free market economy – that is, the birth of and /or the legitimization of the private sector commenced in 1985: the beginning of a new era with a different political and economic system. During this time, however, Guyana faced almost two decades of political instability, which largely stymied its development and economic transformation. Arguably, Guyana only enjoyed eight years of stability out of 25 years in the latter half of its 50+ years post-independence.
Second, prior to Dubai’s oil discovery the country was largely a fishing economy. With its newfound wealth some 50 years ago, the monarch at the time understood from the very outset that the oil resource would NOT last forever. Hence, with this notion in mind, the monarch made it clear to his people that the resources will be used to invest in building a new Dubai economy that will be sustainable in the long-term and that when the oil is depleted, Dubai will not be solely dependent oil. To achieve this goal fifty years ago, Dubai had to import labour because the skills of its people were not enough to help build the infrastructure to support its future growth and transformation at that time which is history today. In so doing, Dubai sought to invest heavily in infrastructure, this is visible today as evidenced by the sophisticated and naturally beautiful physical landscape of the country.
Dubai’s economy today thrives on international trade, shipping, tourism, and a huge chunk of the country’s GDP is driven by the service industry. This is essentially what structural change means, transition from a fishing village to a fundamentally diverse economic model – now one of the richest nations on the planet. The fishing industry in Guyana up to 2019 was a $16 billion industry and is now down to a $7.7 billion industry, representing a loss of 52% in just two years. Notwithstanding this reality, given where Guyana is heading for the next 50 years, the fishing industry will have to naturally evolve and integrate into the new economy of the future where the foundational works is being built today by the current Administration.
The reality is such that the faster this is recognized for what it is, the better for all stakeholders and the country at large. It is imperative for Guyanese to prepare for the new economy of the future especially the fishing industry; learn new skills, develop new competencies and capabilities, learn new trade, invest in self-development, take advantage of all the support and initiatives in these respects. With respect to the future of the fishing industry in an oil economy like Guyana, operators in this sector now need to start examining innovative and sustainable aquaculture (fish farms) scaled to commercial levels – as traditional fishing may not be sustainable and commercially viable in the future.
Finally, it took Dubai 50 years to amass the economic status it has today, Guyana can also achieve similar successes in 50 years provided that the country continues in the current trajectory and continue to build upon the foundation being built by the Administration of the day. And more importantly, political stability is paramount to achieving this outcome.
Sincerely,
Joel Bhagwandin
