Dear Editor,
On the COVID-19 Update of November 29, 2022 inaccurate information was disseminated. No public correction has been made ten days later so the following is penned. While the Honourable Minister of Health, Dr. Frank Anthony, read the numbers, a graphic was aired on the screen that showed there were 164 deaths in 2020, 891 deaths in 2021, and 229 deaths in 2022. That totals to 1284 deaths. The November 26 COVID-19 Dashboard showed, correctly, 1285, not 1284, deaths. A small error that would normally be ignored. Perhaps the Ministry data collection team had begun their holiday celebrations a wee bit early. However, a second graphic purported to show monthly deaths for 2022 beginning with January and running through November 29 had several errors. The November total was listed as 3 when it should have been 4. [From Stabroek News on September 17, 2022: “An 88-year-old man has been recorded as the country’s latest COVID fatality… The new death now takes the country’s death toll from the virus to 1,281.”] The totals for July to October were correct, 16, 7, 3, 0 respectively. The totals for May and June, however, were incorrectly listed as 9 and 18, respectively, when they should have been 10 and 17. April was correctly listed as 2 and January also correctly listed 116 deaths. However, February should have been 49, not 48, and March should have been 6, not 7. It is hoped that for the sake of accuracy and posterity that these figures will be corrected during the Ministry’s next regularly scheduled reconciliation and verification exercises. [Coincidentally, Wednesday’s Dashboard show-ed 71,700 confirmed cases but the regional distribution totalled one less, 71,699. Thursday’s expected correction showed 22 new cases regionally distributed while claiming 21. At this rate one has to be concerned about the accuracy of the actual pandemic numbers once the data is archived]
Of more pressing concern is the rising active cases. As the chart below shows, the numbers continue moving in the wrong direction.
Infections (up 42.42%), positivity rate (up 54.94%), active cases (up 95.71%), and ICU (up .57%) numbers have all increased over this 14 day period and are trending upwards. Testing shows a modest increase but the 14 day low average of 150 tests per day speaks for itself. A month ago there were 20 active cases.
As of December 7th the number is just shy of 200 and surely to surpass 200 within a day or two while the following must be kept in mind: 1) Under-estimation of new cases. The Honourable Minister of Health has stated repeatedly that given the non-reporting of results from self tests active cases are most probably a
significant under-estimation. 2) The overall positivity rate remains high at 10.14%. Guyana has had a double digit positivity rate now for twelve straight months. The last time the positivity rate dipped below 10% was on January 8. 3) Low testing. The Honourable minister has asked persons to get tested if they are presenting with flu-like symptoms since there is a particular subvariant of the COVID virus that presents with symptoms which mimics the flu. The response has not been good. Given the implications of this low testing perhaps the Ministry will look at wastewater or some other such metric which provides valuable data needed to help mitigate the spread of the virus? 4) Festive season. As the festive season moves into full swing there will be more crowds and less social distancing. Mask wearing seems to have become an afterthought, if that, instead of a primary defense. 5) Evasive virus. There are now many variants and subvariants, some with remarkable immune evasive capabilities. 6) Low vaccinations numbers. It was stated here several months ago by this letter writer that at the then present pace of vaccinations the Ministry will have reached 1,000,000 vaccines sometime around February 2023. Given the present pace of vaccination now (the Ministry last released detailed figures on November 9) however, that time has been pushed back to around June/July and there seems to be a good shot that 1,000,000 jabs might never happen. Of particular note is the utter lack of persons getting their boosters. Less than 22% of adults 18+ eligible for boosters have taken the jab. That is about 13% of targeted adults. Less than 1% of those who have taken the first booster have taken the second. Less than 37% of adolescents (12-17) have taken their second primary dose; the number drops to less than 6% for pre-adolescents (5-11). Look at another way: the 900,000 jabs milestone was breached on April 25, 2022. 952,205 jabs have been administered so far. Vaccines remain unparalleled in the fight against COVID-19. We are still in the infancy of the wave. That is the good news.
Yours faithfully,
Ellis Dee
