We now have airtight, unimpeachable evidence that ExxonMobil accurately predicted global warming years before it turned around and publicly attacked climate science and scientists. Our findings show that ExxonMobil’s public denial of climate science contradicted its own scientists’ data.
Dr. Geoffrey Supran, University of Miami
A recently released United Nations report concluded that the ozone layer in the earth’s stratosphere is slowly healing, with the hole over Antarctica projected to close in about 43 years. This is mainly due to the Montreal Protocol entered into in 1987 whereby countries agreed to stop producing chemicals that destroy the ozone layer, including chlorofluorocarbons used in refrigerants and aerosols. The ozone layer shields the planet from harmful radiation linked to skin cancer, cataracts and crop damage. The report indicated that chlorine levels are down 11.5 percent since they peaked in 1993; while bromine, which is more efficient at destroying ozone, dropped 14.5 percent since its 1999 peak. Another set of chemicals, called HFC, that are heat-trapping greenhouse gases, were banned a few years ago. This ban would avoid 0.3 to 0.5℃ of additional warming.
This is good news for environmentalist and advocates of climate change. According to World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas, ‘[o]zone action sets a precedent for climate action. Success in phasing out ozone-eating chemicals shows us what can and must be done – as a matter of urgency — to transition away from fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gases and so limit temperature increase’. See https://ca.yahoo.com/news/un-says-ozone-layer-slowly-150421526.html.
According to another new study, the world’s glaciers are shrinking and disappearing faster than previously thought. Two-thirds of them are projected to melt out of existence by the end of the century if current trends in temperature rise, which is projected increase to 2.7℃ above the pre-industrial average, continue. In particular, 32 percent of the world’s glacier mass as well as 68 percent of the glaciers will disappear, resulting in an increase sea level rise by 4.5 inches. The projected ice loss by 2100 ranges from 38.7 trillion metric tons to 64.4 trillion tons, depending on how much the globe warms and how much coal, oil and gas are burned. In the 2016 Paris Accord on climate change, countries have agreed to individually and collectively take measures to keep temperature rise to not exceeding 2.0℃, preferably 1.5℃, above per-industrial average. The average global temperatures have so far risen by 1.2 ℃ since the start of the Industrial Revolution.
The 4.5 inches of sea level rise from melting glaciers would mean millions of people around the world would be living below the high tide line. Additionally, glaciers provide water for drinking, agriculture, hydropower, and other services for billions of people. Their loss will therefore result in shrinking water supplies, more risk from flood events and the loss of historic ice-covered spots around the globe. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center Director Mark Serreze, ‘[a]s they lose their ice in a sense they also lose their soul’. See https://ca.yahoo.com/news/study-two-thirds-glaciers-track-190235498.html.
A third recently released study indicated that the Earth experienced its fifth warmest year in recorded history in 2022; while the last eight years have each been the hottest on record. The only years hotter than 2022 have been 2016, 2020, 2019 and 2017. Scientists have long concluded that these trends are due to climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels that releases greenhouse gases into the Earth’s atmosphere. These gases trap the sun’s ultraviolet radiation, resulting in warming of the planet. According to the study:
Climate change has been linked to drought, increased wildfire activity, inundating rains that result in flash flooding, wetter hurricanes that ramp up more quickly, melting ice caps and glaciers that help result in rising sea levels, crop loss, deadly heat waves and the instability of the polar vortex.
Carbon dioxide and methane concentrations in the atmosphere rose by approximately 2.1 parts per million (ppm) and 12 parts per billion (ppb), respectively, resulting in an average of approximately 417 ppm for carbon dioxide and 1,894 ppb for methane. See https://ca.yahoo.com/news/2022-was-the-5th-warmest-year-on-record-adding-further-evidence-of-climate-change-191924854.html.
And the New York Times reported last week that as far back as the late 1970s ExxonMobil’s scientists had predicted the warming effects that the burning of fossil fuels would have on the planet. These scientists used state-of-the-art equipment to measure carbon dioxide in the ocean and in the air and were able to closely track temperature increases over the period 1977 to 2003. Instead of responding appropriately, the U.S. oil giant sought to discredit its own scientists’ findings. Over the years, multiple lawsuits were filed against Exxon and other companies accusing them of public deception. See https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/12/climate/exxon-mobil-global-warming-climate-change.html.
Today is Budget Day 2023 – the day that everyone looks forward to for an assessment of the performance of the country’s economy in 2022 and its state of affairs at the end of that year. It is also the day when the budgetary proposals for 2023 are unfolded so that citizens can ascertain how these proposals will affect their daily lives, the welfare and wellbeing of the communities in which they live, and the country as a whole. More specifically, citizens will be eager to learn of the proposed measures that will help to cushion the effects of the unprecedent rise in the cost of living, including tax relief, adjustments to wages/salaries in the case of public sector employees, and the national minimum wage. The business community will also look forward to the grant of various forms of incentives to help them develop and grow, and to contribute to the growth of the economy.
As our elected representatives meet to consider the Estimates, it is our hope that there will be serious reflection on the results of the above-mentioned studies vis-à-vis the extent of our own contribution to assist in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. This is apart from our country being the first to issue carbon credits for its vast forest resources which, it must be noted, are a gift of nature. On the other hand, a significant portion of the Estimates is expected to be funded from revenues derived from the extraction of fossil fuels that is the main contributor of climate change.
Since the discovery of massive crude oil resources, we have been taking much pride in speaking about the country’s unprecedented growth and how Guyana is one of the fastest growing economy in the world. While this may be true using the traditional approach to macroeconomic assessments, the emphasis on the total gross domestic product (GDP) growth almost to the exclusion on non-oil growth, is arguably very much of a distortion, in the particular situation of Guyana. We believe that a more appropriate measure is the gross national product (GNP) which adjusts the GDP to reflect the value of goods and services produced by Guyanese residents only, both domestically and abroad. That apart, it is the performance of non-oil economy that makes the real difference in the lives of the vast majority of the citizens.
Additionally, we must ask ourselves what efforts are being made to avoid the Dutch disease and the resource curse. The Dutch disease is about the overdependence of one sector of the economy, resulting in a decline in the other sectors. On the other hand, resource curse (also known as the paradox of the plenty) is a phenomenon whereby oil-rich countries do not benefit from the natural resource wealth as they ought to, and where there is a lack of effective response to public welfare needs. While the Authorities have been providing one-off cash grants to various groups, it is stop-gap and arbitrary approach that cannot be regarded as sustainable, unless carefully crafted policies are adopted after the widest consultations with key stakeholders, with the support of the Legislature. In particular, the active involvement of the political Opposition will go a long way towards removing any perception of discrimination in the distribution of these grants.
Early budget presentation
It is good that we are having an early budget for the second consecutive year, though we would have preferred a situation where the budget is approved before the commencement of the fiscal year, as is the practice in Jamaica whose constitution mandates that this be done. The Guyana constitution requires the Estimates to be presented to the National Assembly within 90 days of the commencement of the fiscal year.
The main advantage of having an early budget is that budget agencies have enough time to execute their programmes and activities, compared with the situation prior to 2015 where the Estimates were presented to the Assembly close to the constitutional deadline. Since it took another month before the Estimates were approved, budget agencies in effect had eight months to execute a 12-month programme. By the time these agencies got their act together, it was close to mid-year. As a result, there was a rush to execute their programmes and activities in the second half of the year, resulting in a marked acceleration of expenditure, especially in the last quarter. In such a scenario, all sorts of irregularities took place, including: significant breaches in the Procurement Act, especially as regards tendering and the assessment of bids received; overpayment to suppliers and contractors; non-delivery of goods and services; defective works performed; drawing of cheques close to year-end although value was yet to be received; and the failure to refund unspent balances to the Consolidated Fund, as required by the Fiscal Management and Accountability Act.
Even with early budgets, these violations continue, as attested to in the latest Auditor General’s report. The mantra is: ‘if you do not spend it, you lose it’!. There is hardly any consideration of how much in savings could have been effected without compromising on the achievement of the objectives of the various programmes and activities, and the desired outputs, outcomes and impacts.
Programme budgeting
In 1998, programme budgeting was introduced to provide for the accountability for outputs rather than inputs which was the focus prior to then. This involves the allocation of resources based on functions and objectives as well as outputs, outcomes and impacts. Within each budget agency, each programme is supported by sub-programmes and activities. The 2022 Estimates contain 184 programmes under 80 Ministries/ Departments/Regions. Volume II of the Estimates contains Programme Performance Statements for each programme, outlining the objectives of the programme, strategies to achieve the objectives, impacts, indicators of achievement, and the proposed budgetary allocation. These could be elaborated on, especially as regards indicators of achievement which could be quantified to facilitate ex post evaluation.
Years ago, especially under the Hoyte’s administration, each Ministry/Department/Region was required to prepare and present to the Assembly an annual report in a specified format prior to the consideration of the Estimates for the next fiscal year. An integral part of the report was an assessment of the extent to which the entity has achieved its objectives and what were the actual outs, outcomes and impacts vis-à-vis those intended. This practice appears to have been discontinued. If so, it should be reinstated, with the performance aspect certified by the Auditor General whose report should also be attached.
Admittedly, this suggestion is somewhat of a novelty but it is worth trying to ensure proper accountability for outputs, outcomes and impacts. Indeed, it is the essence of performance auditing with which the Audit Office is yet to grapple. After 17 years since the passing of the Audit Act to provide the Auditor General with the mandate to undertake performance audits, only 12 such audits were undertaken, and in a selective way, as of September 2022. Two of which were follow-up audits. That apart, the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) is yet to examine the related reports so that the necessary corrective action can be take to remedy the deficiencies identified. At the moment, the PAC is seven years in arrears in reporting on the results of its examination of the public accounts, its last report having been issued for the years 2012-2014. The Committee is also yet to scrutinize the accounts of entities comprising the wider public sector, including the Guyana Sugar Corporation, Guyana Power and Light, Guyana Water Inc., National Industrial and Commercial Investments Ltd., and Atlantic Hotel Inc. which owns the Marriott Hotel that is up for sale.
Notwithstanding the Auditor General’s mandate to undertake performance audits, in the interim, a more systematic and comprehensive approach is needed to determine which programmes are not performing as they should, and appropriate adjustments made, including the elimination of those that cannot be justified in terms of costs vis-à-vis the benefits to be derived. This should preferably be the role of the Budget Office as part of the budget preparation. So far, there is no evidence that this is being done, as the same programmes and activities continue year after year.
An appeal to our MPs
As the Assembly meets next week to debate the Estimates, we appeal to our Parliamentarians to conduct themselves in a manner befitting the position they hold as the elected representatives of the citizens of this country. In the execution of their duties, MPs should be guided by the Code of Conduct contained in the Integrity Commission Act. The ugly and most disgraceful spectacle witnessed during the consideration of the Natural Resource Fund Bill should never be allowed to repeat itself. The Government’s side must also accept blame for its refusal to have the Bill referred to a Select Committee for detailed consideration.
While some degree of heckling and cross-talks are considered acceptable, the Speaker has the solemn duty to ensure that they do not degenerate into insults, personal vilification and character assassinations. He must be even-handed on both sides of the House. The debate should be a healthy one, and each participant should be allowed to express his/her views without any form of interruption, subject to agreed time limits for each presenter. If there is merit in any arguments that may require an amendment to the Estimates, the national interest dictates that this be done. After all, this is the purpose of the budget debate. Parliamentarians must eschew taking positions based on narrow political interest and they should be allowed to take positions based on their conscience, after due reflection on the arguments presented.
Finally, boycotts and walk-outs should be thing of the past. They serve no useful purpose and are an abrogation of responsibility.
