Dear Editor,
All Guyana that pays attention owes Mr. Winston Brassington a word of thanks for his offering on the gas-to-shore project at the International Energy Conference of 2023. It was is a mere US$55M annually for the eternity of 20 years for the gas to get to ground at Wales.
The Taskforce Head furnished an array of numbers which laid out where things stood with this project. From a numbers perspective alone, Mr. Brassington’s output is sure to open eyes, while leaving others a bit on the blank, confused, depress-ed, and falling behind side. I find it necessary, however, to suggest that he could have done better and, in the process, do a great service to his fellow Guyanese. In a cupped hand, he could have made things much simpler, leading to the smoother, the clearer.
It is my position that it would be more enlightening, of much more practical value, if he was astute enough to give Guyanese a calculation that captures and conveys the following:
1) 50MM x 365 x 20 x 1k (daily cubic feet quantity of gas times number of days x years x conversion rate/factor) to arrive at the total quantity of gas involved. It should be noted that I have arbitrarily taken the liberty of using a British Thermal Unit conversion factor of 1000 and not 1050 units, as is more conventional. This is to be on the safe side, with a lot of leeway for what I shall call the ‘unusual’.
At this stage, we have the total quantity/output of gas anticipated to flow through the pipeline to shore. Then, I mention to Mr. Brassington that citizens are sure to be better equipped to making their own calculations, when the following cost details are provided:
2) Pipeline cost
3) Gas plant cost
4) The operations cost, and
5) The cost of funds (money to
make all of the above possible,
each of which would be massive).
With both sides (quantity and costs) of the aforementioned in hand, Guyanese are then in good shape to take matters from there and get to a place that is confidence inducing. In other words, locals can do their own calculations, make their own conclusions, and all on a numbers-driven basis, thanks to their own studious efforts. The release of assumptions used (and this is crucial) would assist immensely. Essentials on this gas-to-energy, and related issues and concerns, such as the real cost of electricity, and how economical (feasible) this project would turn out to be, would all be out in the open, and matters can distill from there to wherever they terminate, however they terminate. I don’t think that this is asking for too much of either Mr. Brassington, or the PPP Government. In fact, I would be surprised if this humble submission would not be found endearing, something to take to heart.
As a quick aside that is totally unrelated to Mr. Brassington’s presentation at the Energy Conference/Expo, these additional points are placed in the public domain, because they do have a bearing on things gas. A few years back, there was nary a word from Exxon about excess gas, or gas-to-shore considerations. In fact, the thinking was that the gas was going to have to be reinjected by Exxon into its offshore operations. Fast forward to today, and now the air is saturated with great energy, passion, and devotion about gas-to-shore from Exxon’s ops to Wales. In the reinjection scenario, there was a cost for Exxon (really, Guyana’s).
In the gas-to-energy regime, Exxon gets to sell Guyana’s gas back to Guyana, admittedly at a ‘competitive’ price (whatever that means), charge Guyana transportation costs, squeeze in on Guyana a couple of percentage points for interest top-up, and scout around for whatever can fall under that convenient and durable workhorse ‘miscellaneous’ to drain another dollar, or many millions, out of Guyana.
With a bow to all, this is not American capitalism, or of the textbooks drafted by Adam Smith and Paul Samuelson. But there is an ‘invisible hand’ and it is not a kind one for dear darling Guyana. This is either the communist’s version of economics and business machinations; or that made popular by the Sicilian Cosa Nostra. Looking at Mr. Brassington’s numbers informs me that somebody is doing a number on the Guyanese people. From energy blackout to information brownout. Mental whiteout.
Sincerely,
GHK Lall
