Introduction
My address to the Caribbean Develop-ment Bank Board of Governors in Georgetown in May 2005, postulated that major social and political problems in the Caribbean constituted the soft underbelly of economic progress in that the social progress achieved was insufficient in its distribution across households and districts to cap the wells of discontent which threaten the stability of future economic growth. I made reference to indicators on poverty, education, health and nutritional status, water resource provision, unemployment, and income inequality.
I returned to the matter of underachievement in social welfare in my co-authorship of the Caribbean Human Development Report 2016 entitled Multi-dimensional Progress: Human Resilience Beyond Income. That report dealt exhaustively with human vulnerability from economic, social and environmental perspectives and identified the most vulnerable groups within Caribbean countries as women, the elderly, young males, child labourers and street children, people with disabilities, and indigenous people and Maroons. It provided estimates of poverty, for example, CDB’s estimate that 36% of Guyana’s population fell below the poverty line in 2008. It reported that Caribbean people perceived poverty in terms of their inability to provide for childcare and education, hunger, inadequate dwellings, and under-employment.
Fast forward specifically to Guyana in 2023. How adequate has been the extent of social progress and how should the deficiencies be strategically addressed?
Guyana Social Progress Status Report
Guyanese economic growth has been tremendously impressive since 2021, reaching 37% in 2023, and is expected to reach 45% in 2024. It needs to be accompanied by substantial social progress.
The extent of poverty and the means to alleviate or eradicate it have been prominent in public discourses. Estimates of poverty by international organisations are of varying reliability and consistency. The World Bank has stated that the poverty rate decreased from 60.9% in 2006 to 48.4% in 2019. 39% in 2021, and 48% in 2022. UNDP claims that 38.8% of the Guyanese resident population was “intensely deprived” in 2019. This means approximately 300,000 persons out of a population of 780,000. Unless the statistical bases for these various estimates are revealed, they ought to be taken cautiously.
Income inequality has not decreased in Guyana. The estimates of income inequality reported in the UNDP Human Development Report are approximately the same for 2015, 2019 and 2021.
Data from a household survey conducted by the Guyana Bureau of Statistics in 2019/2020 help somewhat with a portrayal of household wealth and its spatial characteristics which could help in crafting appropriate strategies. Grouping households into five wealth categories namely, “Poorest”, “Second”, “Middle”, “Fourth” and “Richest”, the survey established that residents of the interior regions are overwhelmingly very poor, especially those residing in Regions 1, 7, 8 and 9. In contrast, only a small percentage of coastal residents are within the “Poorest” category with most of them distributed fairly evenly among the other categories. Rural residents have a greater proportion of their members in the two lowest wealth categories than do urban residents, a greater proportion of whom are in the two higher wealth categories.
The survey profiled the country in relation to possession of electronic consumers goods such as television, mobile phones and computers, and in access to internet services. For the entire country, only 40% of households have computers and only 47% have access to internet services. There are significant disparities between coastal and interior regions, between the poorest and the richest, and between ethnic groups with Amerindians situated much less favourably than Afro-Guyanese and Indo-Guyanese, but with Indo-Guyanese situated less favourably than Afro-Guyanese in terms of computers and internet access.
There has been modest progress with respect to the health status of the population. Life expectancy at birth in 2020 was 4 years longer than it was in 2015 and maternal mortality decreased from 231 persons per 100,000 mothers in 2000 to 169 persons per 100,000 in 2017.
Progress has been slower in education, whether measured in average years of schooling, expected years of schooling, or inequality in access to education. For instance, the average number of years of schooling for a child remained at 8 years approximately from 2015 to 2020, and education inequality was not diminished.
Other social indicators would tell the same story. Dealing comprehensively with the social welfare challenges of Guyana is an urgent challenge but one which could now be addressed within a considerably more propitious fiscal situation and national economic prospects.
Strategic Approaches for Achieving Social Progress
In 2005, I concluded that there should be greater focus on improving aggregate performance in education, health, and other social services, and that there must be stronger efforts to bring about a more equitable distribution of opportunities and a more equitable distribution of income and wealth.
Increased budgetary expenditures for capital upgrades and expansion of facilities in education, health and the other social services, accompanied by measures to improve efficiency of service delivery, and due attention to spatial disparities would certainly help.
Equitable distribution of opportunities, income and wealth is a much greater challenge, made more difficult by the absence of good statistical data to inform policy decisions. Anecdotes are insufficient for evidence-based decision-making. There is an enhanced role for the official statistical agencies and scholars at the University of Guyana in this regard. To the extent that the knowledge base permits, the strategic approach could encompass targeted income transfers to households, and a portfolio of assistance to small business enterprises which includes training, financial assistance, legal support services, and sponsorship and encouragement of joint endeavours.
Insightful recommendations for reducing human vulnerability have also been made by the 2016 Caribbean Human Development Report. The recommendations include increasing opportunities for decent and productive employment by achieving sustainable economic growth; adoption of a strategic approach to youth empowerment, economic enfranchisement and holistic development; improving the resilience of women by dealing with health issues, intimate partner abuse and violence, child care facilities, labour force participation, and encouragement of female entrepreneurship; improving social services for indigenous peoples; development and implementation of policies for reducing vulnerabilities of people with disabilities; national energy diversification strategies; transitioning to a green economy and improving environmental stewardship, management and conservation; and strengthening risk-informed development planning to deal with climate change and natural hazards.
There is no shortage of sensible ideas, proposals and recommendations for active consideration by a Guyana government that already seeks to address the social welfare challenges in Guyana but nonetheless is willing to explore other strategic approaches.
