Tomorrow Guyana goes to the polls for Local Government Elections. In numerical terms the PPP/C always does better in these than does the opposition simply because there are 70 Neighbourhood Democratic Councils and ten municipalities, albeit of varying sizes and consequently with varying numbers of council representatives. APNU dominates the most important of the latter, whereas NDCs are found in rural or semi-rural areas where PPP/C supporters tend to prevail. APNU has decided not to contest in the case of some NDCs where it knows it cannot win, possibly because it lacks the funds to do so.
It is reasonable to suppose that in accordance with the usual pattern the governing party will take most of the NDCs, which if it does, would hardly supply evidence of any convulsions in the political landscape. What would indicate that politically speaking the earth had shifted would be if it made substantial inroads into certain municipalities. There are ten towns in this country, some of them in PPP territory, such as Anna Regina, Corriverton and Rose Hall, and in the 2018 local elections, APNU took five of them.
What is important, however, is that in terms of population statistics, three of those five account for by far the majority of urban dwellers. The capital city, for example, records a population of 191,810; Linden, a population of 27,277; and New Amsterdam, 17,329. The other two opposition-held towns are Bartica with a population of 8,004; and Mahdia, with 2,563. (2012 census) Whatever the total of eligible voters in any of these municipalities, what will matter is how many of them actually turn out to vote, and where that is concerned, traditionally the figure has been low. In 2018 in Georgetown, for example, it was only 28%, although the countrywide figure was somewhat higher at 36%. This compares with the figure for general elections of 70.8% in 2020.
The Joint Services always vote early, and it has been reported that their turnout had increased this year to 47.48% from 39% in 2018. Whether that pattern will be repeated across the civilian board remains to be seen, but if it doesn’t it won’t be for lack of effort on the part of the PPP/C, which has been campaigning vigorously in opposition areas especially, and has enticed some leading APNU figures to join its ranks.
Perhaps the recruitment which would have taken the main opposition party most off guard was that of Ms Barbara Pilgrim, a PNC stalwart and leader in New Amsterdam, who had spoken out for Mr David Granger during the five month period following the 2020 election. Given her record and work for the party it must have left the hierarchy in Sophia open-mouthed in disbelief. Whether her defection is indicative of some change of direction in Guyana’s third largest municipality we will only discover following the poll tomorrow, but if it happens it would represent an earth tremor, politically speaking, of significant proportions.
But what Freedom House really wants, of course, is a political earthquake, and for that it needs to capture Georgetown. It had already made some inroads in the last local government elections, raising its number of councillors from the two it had in 2016 to seven in 2018. The M&CC has 30 councillors in all, two of whom belong to the AFC and the remainder to APNU.
As in the case of New Amsterdam the PPP/C has brought into its fold APNU councillors, the most prominent among whom is former Mayor Patricia Chase-Green. Her council record is besmirched by her association with the parking meter scandal, a fault for which Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo was not prepared to condemn her. “[W]e don’t let one issue define how we relate to people,” he said. It might be commented that it is not a formula for ensuring the enrolment of representatives of integrity either. Whether she will be able to bring in the votes in South Georgetown cannot be predicted, but it is conceivable that the parking meter issue affected some South residents less than others if their main mode of transportation was the minibuses.
Along with the addition of APNU personalities to the cause, the PPP/C has been holding rallies in the opposition heartland, which were well received, quite in contrast to what the situation would have been years ago. The governing party has certain things in its favour this time around, most notably an extraordinarily weak and ineffectual opposition. The state of its party structures up and down the country is in question, and it has appeared incapable during this campaign of being able to inspire its supporters or galvanise them into deciding to go out and vote for it.
The ruling party would certainly get a considerable fillip if the turnout in the capital was very low, so that even if a fair number of voters were not prepared to put their Xs on the ballot paper next to a PPP/C candidate they just stayed home instead of electing the opposition. There are some independent candidates in the mix, but whether they can attract votes is impossible to say. In any case it is unlikely they would affect the final result in any significant way.
The second thing in the governing party’s favour is the fact that with the oil windfall it has money to slosh around, and so its promises appear to have more substance than has been the case in the past. It may be too, that some opposition political figures who have deserted their former party feel that it is only with the rulers in this land that anything can get done for the people and at the same time they themselves can advance; their own party has neither the means nor the will.
And then of course there is the time-honoured approach of Freedom House to a PNC-controlled capital: deny it funds so it cannot function and then blame it for the resulting chaos. At a Kitty rally three nights ago Mr Jagdeo promised the audience that central government would support their councillors if they won City Hall, while Prime Minister Mark Phillips gave the assurance that it would commit to developing and transforming the city. Given the current abysmal state of Georgetown it may be that some voters will be persuaded that the only route to progress after more than 30 years of neglect and political punishment would be to change their vote.
The Vice President reinforced his statements made at rallies with allegations put forward in a live TV interview, which as is often his wont had at best a tangential relationship with the facts. His assertions were challenged by Mayor Ubraj Narine, particularly as these related to funding and audits. The residents of the capital probably do not even know how much central government exercises control over what goes on in their municipality because of what is essentially a dysfunctional system. In any event, it is probably too late for the city authorities to try and explain to voters now; in addition to other shortcomings clear communication has never been their strong point.
Exactly what will happen in the three most populous municipalities – Georgetown, Linden and New Amsterdam – is a matter for speculation for the first time in decades. The last occasion when the capital was in question occurred in 1994, when the party Good and Green Guyana led by Mr Hamilton Green split the PNC vote. In addition, how secure the APNU vote in Linden is, is something no one can say at this point. It is not until we wake up on Tuesday morning, or perhaps even before, that we will find out how much the landscape has been transformed.
