While spin doctors from the two main parties are busy declaring victory in this week’s local government elections, it feels more like they fought each other to a draw which points to perils and opportunities for both sides ahead of 2025.
For example it is hard to conclude that APNU did well when it scraped a victory in New Amsterdam and lost four more seats to the PPP/C in its stronghold of Georgetown. It also lost additional LAAs to the PPP/C which increasingly dominates rural and interior communities. The tie in Bartica will also be a blow for the party.
At the same time, the PPP/C’s General Secretary Bharrat Jagdeo had more than hinted that his party had a chance to capture the capital along with New Amsterdam and Linden and this did not materialise even though they spent tens of millions of dollars and campaigned heavily throughout the country.
It was a poor return on investment although who did the investing remains a mystery. What we do know is that us the taxpayers funded a flagrant abuse of state media for the PPP/C’s political ends.
In a way it was all about managing expectations and that gave PNCR leader Aubrey Norton a rare moment to claim a political victory. As for Mr Jagdeo, whatever one’s feelings towards him, he remains head and shoulders above others as a relentless politician who is not afraid to gamble.
1) There are limits: That said he will have learnt some lessons from Monday’s polls including that the strategy of crossover candidates does not appear to work at least in local elections where a candidate is exposed to the electorate, in contrast to one being protected on a party list. (Does anyone imagine that Joseph Hamilton could win a constituency in Georgetown?) The overall implications for general elections is that ethnic and party loyalties prevail over personalities, and that appealing to APNU supporters might only go so far in securing a majority. Turnout remains key. For a party with a declining support base, given continued migration, this may be of some concern.
2) The PPP/C might not be as popular as it thinks. Notwithstanding the red-shirted crowds cheering President Ali’s Michael Jackson impersonation and his imposition of his pet “One Guyana” slogan, the country remains divided. Not everyone who hugs you will vote for you. What people want is a safer and more comfortable standard of living and that requires the hard work of actually managing a country properly.
3) Fresh leadership at Congress Place It may well be time for new faces in the PNCR line-up. The current leadership is perceived as being stuck in the politics of the late 20th century. While Mr Norton might take credit for the various “victories” this week it feels more like the people came out to vote for the party, in spite of, rather than because of his tepid campaigning. Also the party remains divided and financially parlous. The highly limited goals for these elections will not work in 2025.
If the party plans to give itself a chance it will need to pick younger candidates to appeal to younger voters and to financial backers. This might include an individual from Linden.
4) Linden the heartland: That is because Linden is increasingly becoming the wellspring of political activism and solidarity for the PNCR. It is worth recalling that the town made a decisive difference in the 2015 elections with Region 10 delivering 19,742 APNU/AFC votes as compared to 11,358 in 2011. Once again this time, despite massive rallies and other machinations in Linden by the PPP/C it was strongly rebuffed by the town’s residents with APNU increasing its votes from 3605 in 2018 to 8002. Think on this: APNU votes in Georgetown amounted to only 20,839 for a population five times as large as Linden. It is also worth acknowledging that the PPP/C increased its votes from 1075 to 2464, although they must be asking whether it was worth stirring up the town’s inhabitants!
5) Actions have consequences. The forced removal of squatters in Mocha in January resulted in a surge in APNU votes for Mocha/Arcadia from 821 to 1324. While this was not material as the area was always strongly APNU, it would be in a general election. This may also explain APNU’s recapture of Buxton/Foulis with a 37% increase in votes compared to a slight decline for the ruling party. This may be a lesson that a heavy-handed approach to squatting and other issues risks creating pockets of active resentment.
6) Incumbency apathy. It is only natural that in local elections there is some apathy among incumbent party supporters. It happened to APNU in 2018 and it happened to the PPP/C this time in its safe LAAs. Three examples: The municipality of Anna Regina in 2018 recorded 3782 votes for the PPP/C. This time it was 3657; Better Hope, ECD was 1775 in 2018, this time 1593; and in Black Bush Polder it was 2083 and in 2023, 1738. This is not necessarily an expression of discontent but it may become a concern in the run up to 2025 when such votes would count nationally.
This complacency was considered the substantive factor in the PPP/C parliamentary defeats of 2011 and 2015 and why Mr Jagdeo came out of retirement. It also points to the limited effect of campaigning and other measures such as the “Because We Care” grants going out early, and the timely announcements and completions of infrastructure works. This is to some extent like trying to push a string. Effective and sustainable motivation of the base requires something to rally behind rather than a party to oppose. This means that 2025 will revolve more about the past five years management of the economy and how people feel their lives have materially improved since 2020.
7) Another Gecom failure: This was probably the most contentious local elections to date, in particular over issues to do with boundaries and the voters’ list. The latter will need to be resolved before 2025 but as we have seen again Gecom has failed to process and publish timely results thereby creating a vacuum for claims and counterclaims. And with the toxic atmosphere between the commissioners and a weak Chairperson it appears nothing will be done prior to 2025. That is probably the most worrying lesson of all.
8) Time for a reset: The residents of Georgetown have spoken and they still want an APNU-led council. This is a fact that the PPP/C must now acknowledge and instead of besieging and starving City Hall it must make the first move towards a constructive relationship that benefits the residents of the city. The status quo must be broken. If Mr Jagdeo truly believes in democracy he would deliver the same support he had promised were his party to have won.