GUATEMALA CITY, (Reuters) – A Guatemalan anti-corruption campaigner is heavily favored to snag the presidency in Sunday’s run-off vote, suggesting the country could be heading towards a new era after years of democratic backsliding.
Bernardo Arevalo of the progressive center-left Semilla party, who surprised with a second-place finish in the first-round vote, had a strong lead in a recent opinion poll over his rival, former first lady Sandra Torres of the large, establishment center-left National Unity of Hope (UNE) party.
Arevalo, a 64-year-old ex-diplomat and son of a former president, has survived attempts by prosecutors to bar him from the race, amid increasing international scrutiny of the electoral process and allegations of government interference.
Guatemalans will choose their next president at a crucial moment in which the Central American country is dealing with pervasive insecurity, a poverty rate of more than 55%, record hunger and the region’s highest level of migration to the United States.
Arevalo has vowed to investigate wrongdoing, and analysts say that a win for him could see a shake-up of a decades-long status quo in Guatemalan politics, with voters frustrated with corrupt institutions and regular crackdowns on political rivals and journalists.
“This election can be a game-changer. It’s a test for Guatemalan democracy,” said Tamara Taraciuk, Rule of Law program director at the Inter-American Dialogue think-tank.
The campaign period has been wrought with disruptions. The official results of the first-round vote on June 25 were delayed after a challenge by several parties, including that of Torres.
A court then granted a request from Prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche to exclude Semilla from the run-off over allegations the party had illegally affiliated members, including deceased people.
Curruchiche has previously targeted anti-graft campaigners and has been placed on the U.S. State Department’s Engel List for “corrupt and undemocratic actors.”
The country’s top court later reversed the suspension amid a flood of international criticism over perceived tampering with the democratic process, though raids and investigations against Semilla have continued.
The Organization of American States (OAS), which has a mission monitoring the elections, has flagged “clear interference.” OAS chief Luis Almagro said after a visit to Guatemala earlier this month that the presidential campaigns had been influenced by organized crime.
“There are different groups that want to continue with immunity and privileges,” Almagro said.
Like many fed up Guatemalans, university student Gerson López, 23, is pinning his hopes on Arevalo to deliver change.
“He is a person who does not have a history of being corrupt,” said Lopez in Guatemala City. “We need new people and not people who have already been there and have a bad record.”
President Alejandro Giammattei, who cannot seek re-election, has pledged to ensure peaceful elections and transfer power to the winner on Jan. 14. His office declined to comment for this story.
Allegations of political conspiracy are particularly sensitive for Guatemala against the backdrop of a three-decade-long civil conflict ending in 1996 which pitted the political right and left against each other and permanently scarred the country, said Donald J. Planty, former U.S. Ambassador to Guatemala.
“There is, in parts of the establishment, this fear of and bias against the left,” Planty said.
“All efforts have been aimed at preventing (Arevalo) from running or getting him off the ballot through one nefarious means or another,” he added.
Support from the private business sector and international community will be critical if and when Arevalo takes office, experts said. He will likely face barriers in carrying out his agenda as Semilla will not hold a majority in Congress, threatening a period of instability.
“It depends on how hard they decide to go after him on the right,” Planty said. “The world is watching.”
If Arevalo wins, he could face major opposition even before he is due to take office in January, analysts said.
“There is no indication that the attorney general is planning to change the strategy of going after people who challenge the status quo,” said Taraciuk of the Inter-American Dialogue. “Why would they stop now when there’s a risk that they may actually be held accountable for what they’ve done in power?”