Ensconced in Company Path, Georgetown is the monument to the founders of the Non-Aligned Movement – Nasser of Egypt, Nkrumah of Ghana, Nehru of India and Tito of Yugoslavia. The last-named country no longer exists, of course, while the world has long since overtaken the Movement they founded. In any case, even in its heyday it never had the kind of impact their members sought; the international situation of the time was not conducive to it and the membership was too amorphous. But the political descendants of two men whose busts sit on a concrete plinth in the small Robbstown garden are now members of a much more viable body – the BRICS.
Launched in 1999 by Brazil, Russia, India and China, the name BRIC which the new grouping adopted traced its provenance to an unlikely source. It was originally coined by an economist with Goldman Sachs, and when South Africa joined following the end of apartheid and the accession of the ANC to office, the ‘S’ was added. Now that the group has acquired six new members, perhaps it will have to be given another name. Be that as it may, it should be said that while in the intervening years not a great deal has been heard of the bloc despite some economic successes, last week at its three-day meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, the international community was obliged to sit up and take notice.
It is not just that the world has changed since 1999, so have the original four members of BRICS, although arguably, Brazil least of all. China is now the world’s second largest economy, and has been exerting its influence in the international arena, particularly in the developing world. Russia, after a hesitant overture in the direction of democracy, has become what is now described as a mafia state, with its leader encumbered by an international arrest warrant. Although unable to leave the country to attend the meeting in Johannesburg, as a consequence of the advances in modern technology President Putin was able to participate virtually. And then there is India, now a modern powerhouse which last week landed a spaceship on the far side of the moon, which Russia, one of the world’s two original space powers, had failed to do a few days earlier.
The first five members of BRICS are said to account for almost 40% of the world’s population and a quarter of global gross domestic product, and China in particular wants the organisation to be a counter to the G7. This is the Western club consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the EU, representing only 9.8 per cent of the world’s population and 29.8 per cent of global gross domestic product. Once the six new members of BRICS are added in, then that body will account for 47 per cent of the world’s population and 37 per cent of its global gross domestic product.
The Johannesburg meeting reflected the view of the need to reform international institutions, such as the World Bank and the IMF, and to give “a greater role for emerging markets and developing countries, including in leadership positions”. Reform of the UN was not forgotten, something which many developing nations have called for. In particular, the final declaration made explicit reference to the Security Council, which should “increase the representation of developing countries”.
Brazil’s interest going into the meeting revolved particularly around economic matters, and although de-dollarization was an ideal for all of them, it was reported to have been off the table for discussion since it is not something that can be achieved in the shorter term. As Dr Hippolyte Fofack explained in a Project Syndicate piece carried in this newspaper last week, although the members had the financial ability to establish a reserve currency, they lacked the institutional infrastructure to sustain it, in addition to which setting up such an infrastructure would not be a straightforward matter.
In contrast, using local currencies for cross-border trade was already in operation, and had produced benefits for the organisation’s members. Dr Fofack said that BRICS already had the institutions required for an efficient payment system in this regard, and some members had plans to expand local currency settlement even beyond the parameters of BRICS. Then there is the bloc’s New Development Bank, which is already something of a success story, and has plans within the next two years or so to increase local-currency financing to 30% of its portfolio.
If all of this suggests there was a certain unanimity among the five members it would be to exaggerate; there were nuances of difference. Brazil particularly, but also India were not altogether on board with the anti-West rhetoric, and President Lula was reported as rejecting the idea that the organization should aim to rival the US and Group of Seven. Brazil and India are both members of the G20, as is China as well as Russia prior to the Ukraine War. The organization has a rotating presidency, and India is the current president. Apart from the usual macro-economic issues and trade, it also has anti-corruption on its agenda, something which one supposes China would not inflict on the BRICS grouping.
If Brazil’s interests at the meeting leaned to the economic, China’s interest was primarily geopolitical, and the creation of a body which would supply the means by which to change the way the world works. As such, it was interested in the expansion of the bloc, and where that is concerned, prior to the meeting 40 countries had expressed an interest in joining, and 22 had already made formal application.
The expanded membership may have proved something of an obstacle to the final agreement. There were a series of delays before the final announcement, and accord had clearly only been achieved not long before. It seems that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had argued for admission criteria involving a minimum per capita requirement, in addition to ruling out those who were the target of international sanctions. Had that been accepted then both Iran and Venezuela would have been excluded from membership. Perhaps it can be reasonably speculated that Iran was the sticking point, since the sub voce information coming out of the gathering was that five members were to be admitted. When the declaration was made, however, there were six, and these included Iran.
Russia in particular would have been very keen on securing Iran’s accession, since it too is under sanctions and the two countries have close relations relating to the circumventing of these. Even President Lula was reported by Reuters as saying that he saw no contradiction in admitting Iran if it advanced the cause of the developing world. “What matters,” he was quoted as saying, was not the person who governs but the importance of the country.” It is an argument which would have appealed to the Chinese, but not to the West.
The other new members are Argentina, for which Brazil lobbied, Egypt, which is close to China, Ethiopia, which it is thought South Africa wanted in order to have greater African representation in the group, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates whose vast oil resources gave them an edge. In the words of the Financial Times this means that the expanded BRICS “possesses the lion’s share of the world’s oil and gas reserves, as well as a huge endowment of other natural resources.”
Impressive as this economic leverage sounds, it might be noted that this is a general assessment, since Argentina and Egypt are in serious economic straits, while Ethiopia has not even recovered from civil war. What also must be said is that most of the bloc’s members now are autocracies. But then China prefers autocracies, while significant portions of the developing world reject conditionalities about democracy and the like placed by the West on funding. Professor Tang of SOAS in London was quoted by the BBC as saying, “What the Chinese are offering is an alternative world order for which autocrats can feel safe and secure in their own countries.” Not surprisingly this is in complete contrast to what is claimed by President Xi, who said that the growth of BRICS would “ … further strengthen the force for world peace and development.”
The international situation will inevitably change and developing countries will get more say, although whether BRICS will be the main vehicle for ushering in the Global South era remains to be seen. In the meantime, Takuba Lodge and President Ali might ponder the kind of balancing act which might be necessary in the future. Perhaps they might recall that many decades ago Burnham managed to get Venezuela’s application to the Non-Aligned Movement rejected, although she was eventually admitted. Now Venezuela wants to join BRICS, and indicated such as early as the Amazonian Treaty meeting in Brasilia. It would not be something which Georgetown should favour.
And then there is Guyana itself, supposing it were invited to join at some time in the future. BRICS is not the Non-Aligned Movement, and its aims equate more closely to what China envisions for the world in geopolitical terms than how we should be thinking. The government should never forget that whatever America did in the past, the fact that democracy here was rescued in 2020 owes a great deal to Washington. It should ask itself, had it been China in the same position as the US three years ago, would President Ali be in State House today? Do we really want a community of autocracies encircling the globe and dictating international norms?
