Dear Editor,
As the war between Russia and Ukraine rumbles on and as the battle between Israel and Hamas intensifies, it appears as though President Maduro of Venezuela is casting around the world for copycat antecedents that would serve as a one size fits all solution for his expansionist and occupationist ambitions irrespective of whether its accomplishment adheres to international law. Venezuela is a deeply divided society and its political system is dysfunctional. Scenting what may turn out to be a huge loss at next year’s election due to popular displeasure already expressed by the electorate, Maduro is seeking to prop up his administration’s sagging popularity by creating another external enemy. In other words, to survive in power, and fear of an inglorious electoral outcome, the erstwhile Chavista has cast Guyana in the role of an external enemy, not dissimilar from how he views the USA. His weapon to accomplish this is the December 3rd referendum.
With Guyana like a bee in his bonnet, the Venezuelan ‘tough guy’ has probably learnt from his comrades in governments in friendly countries that nothing brings together the domestic populace like an external enemy. In the eyes of a war-mongering military and ruling political elite, Guyana became the external enemy. Like a ‘Rhinestone Cowboy’ riding on the crest of anti-Guyana propaganda about the Zona de Reclamacion, Maduro now seeks through the use of its rubber-stamped referendum to make what Guyanese perceives to be an existential threat become a reality a mere three weeks from now. As Attorney-at-Law, Paul Reichler, one of the legal representatives at the ICJ pointed out at the recent public hearings on Guyana’s application for provisional measures, “The threat is not a paper tiger.” While the Venezuelan President continues to rant and rave that “Jamas! Jamas!” Venezuela has never, and will never recognize the ICJ as an institution for the resolution of the controversy with Guyana and to declare that “the sun of Venezuela is born in the Essequibo” he should know that whatever action or actions he takes, following the YES vote at the referendum, it will be a bad copy of what he may have identified as best suited to accomplish his country’s spurious claim.
It is clear from the highly inflammable and reckless statements emanating from Venezuelan top guns, that Venezuela’s foreign and military policies at this point in time is to satisfy its long-held geopolitical interest by expanding its land mass and territorial sea at Guyana’s expense. Which of the two it chooses to first usurp is solely in Maduro’s head. Any occupation of Guyana’s land or territorial sea through the use of force will result in the border controversy moving from a controversy to a conflict of unimaginable proportions. The question is, is Venezuela pushing its ambitions so aggressively and proceeding with the referendum irrespective of the ICJ to force Guyana to the negotiating table and if so, to negotiate what? If the Guyanese authorities are to forestall any preemptive military incursion by Venezuela into Guyana’s territorial land or sea they have two options. First, is to secure CARICOM’s support for Guyana to propose a resolution to the UN Security Council (UNSC) calling for UN-backed military assistance, though that would entail prolonged negotiations with the P5. Second would be following consultations with CARICOM to go the bilateral route by requesting a friendly country to provide the assistance needed. In this regard, only one of the P5 can be considered.
All things being equal, it is only the United States Guyana can turn to provide the military assistance and political support needed. And Guyana should insist that the support is prompt and visible otherwise Venezuela will conclude that in this hemisphere America’s bark is worse that it’s bite. The arrival of an aircraft carrier along with an acceptable size of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit and the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group stationed at the northwest district would prove a powerful deterrent to any military actions contemplated by Venezuelan on land or at sea. Were President Biden to respond positively and energetically to Guyana’s request, as he did with Israel, at the domestic political level, his response is unlikely to impact negatively on his bid to be re-elected since Venezuela is not a popular cause in American politics. How the governments in South, Central American capitals and CARICOM member states would respond to such a request to the US by Guyana knowing the history of US intervention in Latin and Central America, is hard to say especially at a time when America is deeply involved in the Israeli-Gaza and the Russia-Ukraine wars.
What we can be sure about is that given the correlation of forces and geo-political considerations of the majority of Latin, Central American and Caribbean governments at this point in time, a UNSC resolution approving the desired action would be the preferred option. At the foreign policy and military cooperation levels, it is doubtful that in recognizing the unjust claim by Venezuela and the disproportionate situation facing Guyana militarily, it is unlikely that hemispheric governments would staunchly oppose Guyana’s request for US military assistance thus putting to rest any noises about jeopardizing the Caribbean as a Zone of Peace. In the circumstance, whereby a green light is given for US military assistance to Guyana in any shape or form, timing should be careful knowing that the bellicose, reckless and untethered statements emanating from Caracas can, at any time, trigger one or more preemptive actions by Venezuela. How long after the result of the referendum is announced and arrangements put in place for implementing the five Yeses will be key to triggering a response contemplated by Guyana for overseas assistance in defense of its territorial integrity. Already a call has been made to terminate diplomatic relations with Venezuela.
A factor that should not be overlooked is that the Venezuelan military-intelligence establishment in coordination with powerful financial interests seem to be calling the shots. Moreover, it is quite obvious that there are strategic, geopolitical and economic objectives behind Venezuela’s expansionist designs. In this connection, care must be taken and due consideration given to the treatment meted out to Venezuelan nationals who have sought refuge in Guyana to improve their economic well-being. Inciting cross-border reciprocal xenophobia could prove to be detrimental and must be avoided at all cost on the part of Guyana. The internal repercussions within Venezuela concerning military aggression against Guyana in fulfillment of the YES vote could prove fateful to Maduro electorally. There is a considerable body of political opponents in Venezuela who want to see the back of Maduro; they have voiced their dissenting opinions and expressed their disappointment with his handling of the controversy and are opposed to any military adventurism which they have recognized as a diversion from the internal economic crisis and to help boost Maduro’s sagging popularity.
Sincerely,
Clement J. Rohee,
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs
