Dear Editor,
Like many Guyanese, I was at first flabbergasted when I began watching the press conference with Dr Ralph Gonsalves, Prime Minister of St Vincent & the Grenadines, last Friday evening. I began to adjust my outlook as the Prime Minister, who is also the incumbent President of the Community of Latin American & Caribbean States (CELAC), read the contents of the letter he had addressed to Presidents Ali and Maduro respectively. When I subsequently saw a video of Maduro grandly telling an audience that he had accepted an invitation to talk with President Ali, I became convinced that our President attending the meeting is undeniably the right move.
Various regional leaders have described where we live as a zone of peace – and all have expressed the wish that the region remains a zone of peace. They hold that consensus for a few obvious reasons – the most obvious being that nobody sensible relishes the idea of living in or near a war zone. It follows that member-State CARICOM islands for whom tourism is very important, would be extremely anxious since tourists sensibly tend to stay away from areas of unrest. Refugee challenges inevitably appear during hostilities – an issue that would impact upon the entire region which is already challenged by the current migrations of Venezuelan refugees in alarming numbers. Arguably a major consideration of our Central and South American neighbours, would be the sanctity of their own borders drawn in accordance with agreements made more than a century ago, when those countries were all colonised by European powers.
The concerns of CARICOM and CELAC are thus very real and properly fall to be respected notwithstanding ongoing proceedings before the ICJ. Guyana and Venezuela are next door neighbours. One is threatening the other who stoutly refuses to back down. The potential for a bloody fight is very much alive.
President Ali consulted with the Leader of the Opposition and Guyana’s team in the Hague about accepting the invitation to tomorrow’s meeting with the Venezuelan President. The President of Brazil will also be in attendance. Our President has made it patently clear that the border controversy will not be on the table for discussion – however matters legitimately concerning peace in the region will be freely addressed. Naturally, there will be efforts made by President Lula, Prime Minister Gonsalves and President Ali also, to dissuade the Venezuelan President from executing his declared intentions in relation to Guyana, now bolstered by the widespread support he claims was signalled by the Venezuelan people on 3 December 2023. In reality, Mr Maduro is still seeking the mandate of the Venezuelan electorate – not the meaningless support he claims from a massive yes vote to loaded questions in a referendum that generated only a modest turnout – but their support in real numbers at free elections to be held some time in 2024.
I think there are two good reasons why President Ali meeting with President Maduro is of critical importance. Those reasons relate to the reality of Venezuela’s assertion that it does not accept the jurisdiction of the ICJ. It thus follows that should the ICJ rule in Guyana’s favour, Venezuela will not accept the validity of the 1899 Arbitration anyway and will continue to revive its spurious claim whenever domestic circumstances make doing so good politics to excite national fervour. It is better that neighbours who do not see eye to eye on an important issue, talk to open a line of communication with a view to continuing a rapport – so that they may still relate closely with each other in respect of non-controversial matters like trade and the movement of their peoples.
Whether the upcoming meeting on neutral ground delivers will depend upon how the meeting flows. Our President is fully capable of giving as good as he gets – from anyone – especially foreign journalists who ask testing questions. President Maduro is not a clever foreign journalist but the strongman who lives next door. You don’t want a ‘buss-head’ for not dealing with brawn by using your brain! The meeting provides Maduro with an opportunity to save face – after making much noise about taking over “Essequiba” with immediate effect. Mr Nicolas Maduro should be allowed to return to Caracas able to proclaim to his nation that he was urged not to invade Guyana by President Lula, Dr Gonsalves and President Ali, to which he magnanimously decided to accede in the interests of regional peace. He’s likely to add that the sun still rises in “Essequiba” – to which as a Guyanese I’d say so what? Saving face – either way – means a lot in Latin America.
Editor, the reality is that launching a military expedition of any meaningful scale against Guyana will pose enormous logistical challenges to Venezuela, given the combination of the terrain along and within thousands of square miles of our Western border, our allies’ support and the resolve of the Guyanese people. Still, saving face in the eyes of others is responsible for hundreds of men currently serving long prison sentences in Guyana, and millions similarly doing time or languishing on Death Row in prisons worldwide. Maduro could still order an invasion against all logical reason simply to save face. He could instead be allowed the alternative face-saving opportunity to cancel the aggressive rhetoric, and declare instead to his country, that taking all factors into account he has decided that peace today would be best. Our countries might even become friends as a result – and although I would not hold my breath for that outcome, wouldn’t it be simply wonderful?
Yours truly,
Ronald Bostwick