Dear Editor,
By the time my missive reaches you we would have arrived probably at the 5th or 6th day of Christmas. That notwithstanding, the holiday season continues in keeping with Guyanese tradition. In Alan Jackson’s ‘Let it be Christmas everywhere’ we are reminded that Christmas is “The story of hope, joy and peace.” At the same time, he declares; “Let anger and fear and hate disappear and let there be love that lasts through the year”. Jackson’s composition bears a striking resemblance to the lyrics of the Carol ‘O Little Town of Bethlehem’ that tells us; ‘Yet in thy dark streets shineth The everlasting light; The hopes and fears of all the years; Are met in thee tonight.’
The lofty and aspirational sentiments of ‘peace on earth, goodwill towards men’ notwithstanding, year after year the world careers from one crisis to another, with never ending wars or hotbeds of tension, all man made, none by way of Divine Providence. The ravages of war is on the screens of many TV channels, social media platforms or the front pages of most newspapers. Countless people are affected by climate-related flooding and drought, unemployment, poverty, domestic violence, homelessness, starvation, human and arms trafficking and mass migration. These are just few of the global problems that greet us on a daily basis.
In our ‘neck of the woods’ we were no exception. The unprecedented tension between our country and Venezuela, had it not been cooled, would have created another conflict too many. For our part, President Ali must be credited for the constructive contribution he made. Over the last twelve months, we saw the emergence of new and diverse voices that provided different perspectives to the scope and depth of stories that captured their interest. The political and diplomatic events prior to the December meeting at Argyle are testament to this new perspective. Lurches to the political right and left in European and South American elections, and corresponding geopolitical shifts will only be properly understood as newly elected parties pursue commitments made while campaigning. But that is only the beginning.
According to Patricia Cohen, a New York Times correspondent ‘…more volatility lies ahead in the form of a wave of national elections whose repercussions could be deep and long. More than two billion people in roughly 50 countries, including India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, the United States and the 27 nations of the European Parliament, will head to the polls in 2024. Altogether, participants in 2024’s elections Olympiad account for 60 percent of the world’s economic output’. Of hemispheric interest will be our own general and regional elections as well as those due to be held in the USA and Venezuela in 2024 and 2025 respectively. The U.S. presidential election will be the most significant by far. But as we Guyanese say, ‘There is more in the mortar than on the pestle.’
According to Courtney R. McCaffrey, author of 2024 Global Economic Outlook Report; “In the last couple of months, there has been a rise in smaller players like Yemen, Hamas, Azerbaijan and Venezuela that are seeking to change the status quo. Even if these conflicts are smaller, they can still affect global supply chains in unexpected ways, geopolitical power is becoming more dispersed, and that increases volatility.” What Argyle proved is that though the Guyana/Venezuela controversy pales in comparison to others in Europe and the Middle East what mattered most was it was not neither the size nor the military but the political/ diplomatic factors that were the principal determinants.
As regards conflicts that erupted in 2023, it would be politically naive to deny that ideology, personality and geopolitics do not impact international affairs. The infection of foreign policy by ideology is unavoidable. It is reflected in the contest between democracy and dictatorship; authoritarianism versus the rule of law and Right versus Left in political praxis. We Guyanese should recognize the dramatic change in the international situation in that what we once accepted as the existing “order” is currently being challenged by the rise of the “Global South.” Old uncertainties are now giving way to new ones. This economic shift has gone hand in hand with the enhanced political visibility of countries in the ‘Global South’ who are increasingly asserting themselves on several fronts.
In this shift in economic and political power globally, one thing is certain; the ‘Global South’ is flexing their political and economic muscles to gain leverage. The ‘Global South’ is represented by countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America who oppose NATO over the war in Ukraine and Israel’s war in Gaza. In general, they are poorer, have higher levels of income inequality, suffer lower life expectancy and harsher living conditions than countries in the Global North that is, richer nations. However, their principled and pragmatic positions on global issues have forced the ‘Global North’ to accept the ‘Global South’ as a strategic partner in a mix of energy, economic, social and environmental commonalities. Small wonder why countries making up the ‘Global South’ have opted not to be aligned with any one great power.
Under the Ali administration, Guyana is a good example of how this geo-strategic policy is implemented. Already the GDP in terms of purchasing power of the Global South-dominated BRIC’s nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – surpasses that of the Global North’s G7 club. Will this era that is slowly passing, usher in another where ‘anger and fear’ will disappear? And will love last throughout 2024, or are we at the crossroads pondering which road we must take?
Sincerely,
Clement J. Rohee
Former Foreign Minister