CARTAGENA – By facilitating the inauguration of Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo, despite a last-ditch effort to overturn his landslide election victory, US President Joe Biden has reaffirmed his longstanding commitment to defending democracies around the world. Moreover, by thwarting a coup d’état in Central America’s most populous country, the United States may have created a model for containing the spread of authoritarianism.
Guatemala’s democracy has been in jeopardy since 2019, when then-President Jimmy Morales kicked out the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), an anti-corruption body established by the United Nations in 2006. Morales, a former comedian, launched a massive crackdown on prosecutors and judges investigating his own misconduct and that of high-level officials, causing many legal professionals to flee the country. Among those forced into exile was former Supreme Court President and Attorney-General Thelma Aldana, who was considered a leading presidential candidate at the time.
The crackdown intensified under Morales’s successor, Alejandro Giammattei. In June, José Rubén Zamora, the founder and editor of the newspaper elPeriódico, was sentenced to six years in prison on trumped-up money-laundering charges – a decision condemned by human-rights organizations as an assault on press freedom. ElPeriódico, renowned for its investigations of government corruption, was forced to shut down in May. Although an appellate court overturned Zamora’s sentence in October, he remains behind bars.
It was against this backdrop that Arévalo, who campaigned on an anti-corruption platform, managed to pull off a stunning electoral upset. While Giammattei, leader of the conservative Vamos party, was ineligible to run for a second term, the chances of a major political transformation appeared slim. In February, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal disqualified three candidates perceived as threats to the pacto de corruptos (“pact of the corrupt”), as the country’s political and business elites are often called. Those barred from running included the popular indigenous leader Thelma Cabrera and two prominent conservative figures.
But then events took an unexpected turn. Arévalo, a sociologist and the son of former Guatemalan President Juan José Arévalo, received 12% of the votes in the first round in June despite polling in single digits, finishing second in a large field behind former First Lady Sandra Torres, whom he easily defeated in the August run-off.
American policymakers welcomed Arévalo’s unexpected victory but acknowledged the obstacles he would face during the five months leading up to his inauguration. Both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris quickly congratulated Arévalo, Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a virtual meeting with him, and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan hosted him at the White House. Just three days after leaving office, Giammattei was accused by the State Department of “significant corruption” and barred from entering the US.
All this attention by senior US officials reflects the far-reaching implications of allowing Guatemala to slide into authoritarian rule at a time when Latin America is grappling with political turmoil and democratic decline. Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela are already ruled by dictators, and El Salvador has suspended constitutional rights for nearly two years amid a government crackdown on criminal gangs. In January 2023, supporters of Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed the Congress, the Supreme Court, and the presidential palace in protest against the new president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The erosion of democratic institutions across Latin America has fueled an unprecedented migration crisis. US authorities encountered a record 2.5 million migrants during the 2023 fiscal year, including 220,000 Guatemalans. This number will undoubtedly rise if Arévalo’s supporters, especially among the country’s large indigenous population, become convinced that he will be forced from power.
The efforts to prevent Arévalo from taking office underscore the need for continued US engagement. Immediately following the election, Giammattei’s allies, including the attorney general and several judges, tried to undermine the president-elect. The authorities raided the offices of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and suspended Arévalo’s anti-corruption party, Movimiento Semilla, over alleged irregularities in its registration forms. They even threatened to strip his parliamentary immunity and prosecute him for social-media posts supporting student protests in 2022. During his recent trip to Washington, Arévalo described these efforts as a “coup in slow motion.”
In response, the US imposed sanctions on Guatemalan officials and pro-government businesspeople, including Giammattei’s confidante Miguel Martínez. In December, the State Department announced visa restrictions on nearly 300 lawmakers and oligarchs, along with their immediate families. Assistant Secretary of State Brian A. Nichols warned that future attempts to undermine Arévalo or his party would “be met with a strong US response.”
The nine-hour delay in Arévalo’s inauguration, the result of a desperate bid by his political opponents to deny him the presidency, illustrates the challenges facing Guatemala’s new leader. It took intense US pressure to persuade one of the country’s most powerful business associations to lobby for a peaceful transfer of power, enabling Arévalo to be sworn in after midnight on January 15. But given the threat his anti-corruption agenda poses to the interests of corrupt elites, its success is far from guaranteed.
To be sure, the US does not have the best track record when it comes to defending democracy in Latin America. The recent death of former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has reignited the debate over the US role in setting the stage for the coup that overthrew Chilean President Salvador Allende in 1973. For many Guatemalans, Arévalo’s victory evoked memories of his father, whose election in 1944 marked the beginning of a “democratic spring” that lasted until a US-backed coup toppled his successor, Jacobo Árbenz, a decade later.
America’s approach to democracy in the region remains inconsistent. Eager to cooperate on migration, the US has been reluctant to address El Salvador’s mass detention of alleged gang members and President Nayib Bukele’s decision to run for a second term in defiance of the constitution. Similarly, former US President Donald Trump’s administration did not object to Guatemala’s expulsion of CICIG, and the Biden administration was initially silent on its disqualification of presidential candidates.
In backing the bookish Arévalo and his movement, however, the Biden administration made the right call. The ongoing political turmoil in Guatemala is a test of America’s commitment to defending democracy. If it fails, the consequences will extend far beyond Central America.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024.
